ProFootballDoc: Top 5 Actionable Injury Issues for Week 10
We wish all the games would fall into form like Thursday where the health analysis gave the advantage to the Dolphins defense. Miami easily held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in check for an easy win while covering the under.
The single games don't count toward our five picks on Sunday and we remain at 25-20 to start the season.
We hope the Thursday success carries over to Sunday as we rely on Field View and SIC scores to help with the analysis.
SIC Score is our proprietary numerical injury grading system that incorporates the health of every NFL team and individual players to give sports bettors, DFS players and fantasy owners an edge each week during the season. While it purposely doesn’t take into account coaching, schemes or matchups, SIC Scores give an accurate assessment of team/player overall health heading into a game.
As we are at midseason, many of the healthier or more injured teams are now known and factored in the spreads, thus the week to week change takes a bigger role. Cluster injuries (especially when new) take on more importance when choosing the best games to bet on.
PHILADELPHIA +1.5 @ DENVER
The Broncos have two areas of cluster injuries heading into Week 10. They upset the Cowboys last week with most of the linebacker corps missing but now they are down three out of five offensive line starters with a fourth questionable with a foot injury. Defensively, Denver has the same LB issues (of course sans Von Miller) and now CB Patrick Surtain is likely out or hampered with a knee issue. This is all on top of the COVID turmoil, with seven Broncos players/staff testing positive, including Drew Lock while starting QB Teddy Bridgewater is undergoing daily tests. Five practice squad players have been elevated on Saturday to provide insurance.
NEW ORLEANS vs TENNESSEE under 44
Offensive weapons on both sides are missing. The Saints are without Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara and obviously still miss stud wideout Michael Thomas. The Titans will miss hulking RB Derrick Henry. and veteran wide receiver Julio Jones. New Orleans defense is mostly healthy and could keep the scoring to a minimum. The offense/defense SIC scores favor an under game and one might even consider the Saints +2.5 here as well.
TAMPA BAY -9.5 @ WASHINGTON
The Bucs are a veteran team coming off a bye and have the higher team SIC score including a 17.2 difference between the WFT SIC score. Washington still has Memphis alum Antonio Gibson dealing with the stress fracture, no Curtis Samuel (groin) or Logan Thomas (hamstring) and with backup QB Taylor Heinicke taking snaps from a backup center with Chase Roullier out for the season. This all smells like a large road win off the bye for the Buccaneers.
SEATTLE +3.5 vs GREEN BAY
The return of the star quarterbacks is as expected. I indicated a likely Week 10 return right after his finger surgery which has come into fruition. Wilson should be effective however we will monitor how accurate he is with the deep ball due to his grip and see if the Seahawks change their game plan as they come off a bye. Aaron Rodgers was activated off the COVID reserve list as expected and his toe issue seems to be inconsequential. The biggest advantage is the Seattle starting defense which is completely healthy. The health favors the Seahawks in a high scoring match that should also exceed the current 50.5 total.
JACKSONVILLE +10.5 @ INDIANAPOLIS
At first glance, the overall health of the teams are even but closer inspection shows a defensive advantage for one side. The Jaguars have a healthy defense while the Colts are missing 3/4ths of the secondary starters. We are not saying to take the moneyline, but getting 10.5 points seems too tempting especially with a possible back door cover against the secondary replacements.
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