Predicting The Outcome Of The 2026 NFL Playoffs

NFL Playoff Futures

In the movie Rounders, there is a quote about playing poker that is something along the lines of "Most poker players can't tell you about the biggest hands they've won, but they can tell you in detail about ones they've lost." The quote rings true, for the most part, with sports betting as well. However, if you have a buddy who casually bets, I guarantee you they will tell you about this crazy parlay they've won, or how a 14-legger lost by just one leg. It's a normal sports betting conversation, but what sports betting should always be about is making money. Not all futures will win, but the intention should be trying to make money on the bet whether that's a win or hedge opportunity. The NFL Playoffs should give us a chance to hedge or make money.

AFC: Bills +475 to win Conference

In terms of experience, there is really no team outside of maybe the Steelers that has the same level of consistency and experience as the Bills do. While Buffalo certainly had their flaws this season, the team still has the best quarterback in the AFC in the playoffs. The defense will have issues, the offense won't be quite as crisp, but you're telling me that a guy who has knocked on the door repeatedly only to have it shut by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won't have to go through them? Give me some of that action. The Broncos are likely awaiting the Bills if they upset the Jaguars - for the record, everything I write in here will have nothing to do with spreads, unless noted. I expect the Bills to win against the Jaguars, and that means they probably face the Broncos, unless the Chargers upset the Patriots (I don't think they will). I do think the Bills are the most capable of dealing with the Broncos defense. While Sean Payton is a great offensive coach, I'm not a huge fan of Bo Nix and don't think this Broncos offense is going to have what it takes if the game is close. Josh Allen makes some dumb decisions, but the guy also has shown he is clearly not the reason for losses in the playoffs. I also think the Broncos soft schedule has made them look better than they actually are. The Texans are similar in structure to the Broncos and did beat the Bills earlier this year. I actually think that bodes well for the Bills if they see each other again. I think the Texans could lose to the Steelers if Aaron Rodgers is vintage. That would leave a AFC Championship of the Bills vs the Patriots/Texans/or Steelers. I think the Bills would be favored against the Steelers and maybe at worst a pick'em between the other two. That gives you a good opportunity to hedge. You're asking Buffalo to win two games on the road to start the playoffs, but they have the right guy under center to get it done. 

Jan 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs onto the field before the game against the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

NFC: Rams +425 to win Super Bowl

Hear me out here, which team do you really have confidence in to actually win the NFC? How about the Super Bowl. This year, without a clear top team, is one of the most exciting playoffs we've had in years. It was somewhat of a foregone conclusion that the Chiefs would be in it or at least the Conference Championship for the AFC, the NFC was mostly clear other years as well with the Eagles, 49ers, and even these Rams looking like the best team. The Bears and Packers are both extremely flawed. The 49ers have no defense, and the Eagles haven't looked complete since last year. The Panthers don't deserve to even be in the playoffs. That means you're having the Seahawks or the Rams as the best two teams. It is entirely possible that the Rams have to face the Seahawks in the second round, but if you're making me pick Sam Darnold or Matt Stafford in the playoffs, you're going to get the same answer for me 100% of the time. Give me Stafford and give me Sean McVay. Their defense has slipped, but I think they lock in for the playoffs. My guess is that we see the Eagles beat the 49ers, and the Packers beat the Bears. I see the Rams beating the Eagles in Philly, and then having to play the Seahawks in Seattle in the conference championship. I think after that they still should be the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and even if they aren't, we can then hedge our bet a bit. 

There really is no clear top team, as I just shared. I expect this to be a matchup between the Bills and the Rams. I think the NFL would like that most as well, to be honest. Maybe the Bears, Packers, or 49ers would be acceptable replacements from that standpoint. However, as mentioned, I'm guessing 1st round winners are the Rams, Eagles, Packers. Then Rams beat Eagles, Seattle beats the Packers. Rams beat the Seahawks. In the AFC, I think the Patriots, Bills, and Texans win the first round. Then we get the Bills over Broncos, and the Texans beat the Pats. I think the Bills beat the Texans. Ultimately, I still think the Rams beat the Bills in the Super Bowl. That matchup is +1700 and will be one I throw some pizza money at. 

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