Post All-Star Break NBA Futures To Lock In

Second Half NBA Bets

It seems a bit weird to call this the second half of the NBA season, considering we are already about two-thirds of the way done with the season. This is somewhat similar to what happens in baseball, though. The All-Star Break is not the marking of the middle of the season, but it does give us a good chance to reevaluate our needs before playoffs happen. Maybe can double down, or hedge, or some other option that is available. I'm going to talk a bit about some bets worth making for Awards and Wins in the NBA before we reach the playoffs.

Awards:

Most people are probably going to examine the MVP market and look for some value. There is a bit of value on a few guys, but this is a pretty boring race to be honest. Nikola Jokic somehow is having one of his best statistical seasons ever, and he is +300 to win the award. The problem is that he can only miss one more game. If he misses two, he is disqualified for the MVP award due to the 65 games rule the NBA implemented. Luka Doncic is leading the league in scoring, but he only has a limited amount of games that he can miss. Of the two, I actually think Jokic is less likely to miss games. I also think at +300 there is some good value on him to win. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the current favorite, but he really needs a new PR team to help the public appreciate his game. I'm not implying the public votes for the MVP, but reporters read what people say. I'm going to put a bit on Jokic because if he makes it to the finish line and is eligible, he will likely have a top-3 team, and average a triple double from the center position.

The other play I will make is on Deni Avdija to win Most Improved Player at -120. We probably should've seen this coming a bit, and kudos to Portland for unlocking what Washington either gave up on or couldn't. Avdija has increased his scoring every season. However, this year, he increased from 16.9 to 25.2 points per game. He still needs to get 19 more games played to qualify as well, and Portland should compete for a Play-In Spot. So, I'm not really worried about a tanking issue or anything. It isn't just the scoring, either. He has held steady with his rebounding rate from the past two years, and this year has a high of 6.6 assists, up from his career high of 3.9. Jalen Johnson could get consideration, but his team is bad. He also has kind of been recognized already as one of the better players in the league. I don't see it happening for him this year, but he could be a sneaky pick for next year. 

DALLAS, TEXAS - OCTOBER 22: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs reacts to a score during the first half against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on October 22, 2025 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Wins: 

Spurs over 56.5 Wins. If you haven't been paying attention, the San Antonio Spurs are probably ahead of schedule. It helps having a once-in-a-generation talent dropped into your lap. They already have won 38 games for the season, and are currently in second place in the conference. They have a chance at the #1 seed thanks to the Thunder not being quite as crisp as their blistering hot start to the season. They would need to win 19 games the rest of the year to get to 57 wins. That's actually a lower winning percentage (.679) for their remaining games than they have done this season (.704). Not counting toss-up games that could go either way, I am counting 15 wins on their schedule. That means of the remaining 13, they need to go just 4-9. Give me the over. 

Let's give one more and stay in Texas. Houston will not get to 53 wins this season. They would need to win another 20 games. And, if you missed it over the All-Star Break, there was a rumor about Kevin Durant text messages leaking. Honestly, I don't know if it was or was not him. He, or whoever, was talking crap about current and former teammates. Let's just say I don't expect the Rockets to just put it all behind them. They are at 33-20 at the moment, and would need to win 20 of their final 29 games. Meaning they need to win about 69% of their remaining games. They only have a .623 winning percentage at the moment. They do have a pretty soft schedule to end the season, but I think you are still asking for too much here. Give me the Rockets under 52.5.

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