Plus Money Play On Rockies As They Take On Brewers

Brewers vs. Rockies, 8:40 ET

It was a nice enough Sunday. Even with just one game, we were able to take a nice victory for us and we were able to put a unit in our pocket for the start (or end depending on what you consider Sunday) or our week. The fun thing about sports betting is that we get games every day of the week. July typically marks the start of the second half of the season, and we are just past the midway point of the season. We will start seeing who is a serious contender this week and who isn't. We really don't need any more games to view these two teams accurately, as the Brewers are for sure contenders, and the Rockies are for sure sellers or non-factors this season. 

Milwaukee is 16 games over .500 after 84 games. This is a rather surprising result because they lost their manager, someone regarded as one of the best in the game. They traded away a stud reliever last season. The team traded their best starter, a former Cy Young winner. Making that many changes to your team in a short period of time and not replacing three positions usually would cripple a team, but the Brewers have found a way to improve and are one of the more impressive teams. However, there is one thing that is fairly concerning to me as they are just 23-21 away from Milwaukee. That means they have an unreasonably good record at home of 27-13. A winning record is still a positive, but they need to find ways to win more on the road and be consistent in both spots. Tonight they have Bryse Wilson taking the ball and this season he is 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He is one of the pitchers that does struggle with some very drastic road splits. At home, Wilson has a 2.16 ERA over four starts. On the road, he has made 11 appearances and five starts which spans 40.2 innings and has a 5.31 ERA. For a further example of this, in June, he allowed a total of six hits and no runs over 11.1 innings at home. On the road in June, he made three starts and he allowed 19 hits and 15 earned runs over 14.2 innings. He hasn't faced the Rockies this season, and they haven't faced him many times, but they are 4-for-9 against Wilson.

Jun 25, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Bryse Wilson (46) pitches against the Texas Rangers in the third inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Rockies are already looking toward next year. Sure, they haven't started trading away any players or anything, but clearly they are not going to make the playoffs considering they are almost 30 games under .500. They are typically a better team at home than they are on the road, and that trend is continuing this year. At home this season, the Rockies are 16-24, which is obviously still below .500. However, that also shows that they are 12-31 on the road, which is significantly worse. The problem for the Rockies is that there is very little reason for optimism that the Rockies will improve next year. I think the best-case scenario is they find enough talented players in the minors that can hit the ball. Then they need to sign talented pitchers (something that is hard to do because most pitchers don't want to deal with pitching in Coors Field). Either way, something needs to be done with this team. Today they have Austin Gomber on the hill. Gomber has a 1-5 record with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Like Wilson, he has had very drastic splits, and while you'd think his home starts would be a problem, he's actually be solid at home. He has a 3.57 ERA in six Coors Field starts. On the road, he has made nine starts and has a 5.44 ERA. June was a rather rough month for him as he allowed 24 earned runs over 23 innings. However, he was outstanding in May, allowing just two earned runs over 26.2 innings. The Brewers are 4-for-15 against Gomber. 

This is an interesting game from the lines perspective of what the books have listed. They have the Brewers as fairly significant favorites with a line of -156 and the total of 11.5 runs. Based on their past performance on the road and overall last month, the total should fly over 11.5. However, I am looking more at the home/road splits. In this game, I think that Gomber might be able to recapture his success pitching at home and stifle the Brewers while Wilson is likely to allow a lot of runs. I'm going to take the Rockies at plus money through five innings in this one.

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