THE PLAYERS Championship 2026: 'Horses For The Course, One-And-Done' Picks

People like sh*tting on THE PLAYERS Championship for being a poser because it's referred to as "golf's fifth major" by some, and it's not a major. Yet, annually, THE PLAYERS might have a tougher field than the Masters and TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, is a major-level course. 

Regardless, THE PLAYERS is one of my favorite tournaments because it produces thrilling finishes and features the best players on the PGA TOUR. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy have won here the last three years and five of the last six PLAYERS Championships have been won by one stroke or in a playoff. 

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Good trending form has been predictive for the last six winners since THE PLAYERS got moved to March in 2019. Granted, all six are major champions, and Rory and Scottie are the top two players in the world, so they just win regardless. Either way, I still want to bet guys who are playing well because golfers don’t "find their games" at this course.

I'm using the same gambling strategy for THE PLAYERS that I've used all season: Betting to profit 20 units (u) on my outrights and backing those picks up with placement wagers. Is it working? Kind of. I did lose 6.09u at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, but my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll is still +1.16u. Here are my horses for the course and One-And-Done pick for TPC Sawgrass. 

THE PLAYERS Championship 2026 Bet Slip

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change. 

• Tommy Fleetwood +3233 and Top-10 with Ties +228 (0.5u), both via Kalshi
• Hideki Matsuyama +4000 via BetMGM and Top-10 with Ties +312 via Kalshi (0.5u)
• Jake Knapp +5000 via DraftKings and Top-20 with Ties +217 via Kalshi (0.5u)
• Nicolai Højgaard +9251 and Top-20 with Ties +266 (0.38u), both via Kalshi
• Sahith Theegala +9251 and Top-20 with Ties +252 (0.38u), both via Kalshi
• Ryo Hisatsune +15000 via BetMGM and Top-20 with Ties +350 via DraftKings (0.25u)

Tommy Fleetwood 

I know the betting odds probably overrate Tommy Lad. His only PGA TOUR win was the 30-man TOUR Championship this past August. But I haven't lost money on him since I started betting golf a few years ago, so I don't have any beef with Fleetwood. 

More importantly, I found a good number after he struggled at Bay Hill last week, finishing 49th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Otherwise, it's not like Tommy is playing badly. In his other two starts this year, Fleetwood finished T4 at Pebble Beach and T7 at the Genesis Invitational, both of which are "signature events". 

Furthermore, his game is a perfect fit for this place. Tommy is a precise ball-striker with an excellent short-game. His biggest weakness is distance, or lack thereof, off-the-tee, but accuracy is more important at TPC Sawgrass. The Englishman has only missed the cut once in eight appearances here. He finished T14 last year at THE PLAYERS and T7 and T5 in 2018-19. 

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Also, Le Golf National is my favorite comp course to TPC Sawgrass, and Fleetwood won the 2017 Open de France and a silver medal at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics there. Ultimately, Tommy Lad has the game to win THE PLAYERS. He won the 2025 TOUR Championship, led the 2025 Ryder Cup in points, and is rightfully third in the Official World Golf Rankings. 

Hideki Matsuyama 

The 2021 Masters champion ranks second in my "Course Fit" model at Betsperts Golf behind Scheffler, which blends course history, performance at comp courses, total strokes gained (SG) in Florida over the last three years, total SG at difficult courses with a lot of water danger, and SG: Putting on Poa Trivialis, which is the greens grass of TPC Sawgrass. 

Hideki Matsuyama hits a tee shot at the 11th hole during the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2025 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Matsuyama is a two-time winner of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, a crossover course to TPC Sawgrass with a lot of water danger and Poa Trivialis greens. He could've, should've won the 2026 Phoenix Open, but blew it and lost to Chris Gotterup in a playoff. Hideki won the bronze medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics at Le Golf National

'Deki has four T8-or-better finishes in nine career starts at THE PLAYERS. He would've been the first-round leader in 2020 by firing a then-course record 62 before the tournament got canceled due to COVID. Matsuyama is great with his long irons and has a world-class short-game. Hideki leads the TOUR in Scrambling and Sand Saves. 

Jake Knapp

Believe it not, Knapp Time is second in total SG on TOUR this season, behind Rory. Knapp's finishes this year include a T11 at the Sony Open, a T5 at the Farmers Insurance Open, eighth in Phoenix, a T8 at Pebble Beach, and sixth in his last start at the Genesis. He withdrew from last week's Arnold Palmer but was seen practicing on the range at TPC Sawgrass earlier this week. 

He excels in two of the most important categories I looked at THE PLAYERS: Par 5 scoring and firing at pins. Par 5 scoring is the most predictive stat in golf because it requires the most clubs, and Jake leads the TOUR in Par 5 scoring average this year. Knapp ranks 15th in this field in "birdie-or-better rate when ‘Going-for-the-green’," according to Betsperts Golf. 

He's gained strokes on the field in ball-striking (driving and iron play) in all five starts this season, and he's gained strokes chipping and putting at THE PLAYERS the last two years. If Knapp can stay out of the water and continue his strong short-game at TPC Sawgrass, he'll be in the mix on the weekend, and that's all I can ask for. 

Nicolai Højgaard

The Dane has missed the cut in his first two PLAYERS, but he's still just 24 years old and isn't afraid of the moment. He won the 2023 DP World Tour Championship in a field with the best players in the world and was a member of the 2023 winning European Ryder Cup team. Højgaard has a higher ceiling than Knapp and Min Loo Wee, but has way better odds. 

When adjusted for field strength, Nicolai has gained strokes on the field across the board (driving, with his irons, chipping and putting) in three straight starts, per DataGolf.com. This includes a T3 in Phoenix, a T6 at the Cognizant Classic and a T24 at the Arnold Palmer. These are all different types of courses. Finally, Højgaard finished seventh in the 2024 Paris Olympics. 

Sahith Theegala

I don't have much of a statistical argument; I just love Theegala. He struggled with injuries last year, but he looks like himself this season and is getting great odds. Sahith has three T8-or-better finishes this year: T8 at the American Express at another Pete Dye course, T7 at the Farmers, and T6 at Bay Hill last week. 

Theegala has contended at similar courses, such as TPC River Highlands, TPC Scottsdale and Harbour Town. Lastly, everyone who knows ball says Theegala will win a major eventually. He was a three-time All-American at Pepperdine and became the fifth golfer ever to win the Haskins, Ben Hogan, and Jack Nicklaus Awards in a single college season (2020). 

Ryo Hisatsune

Again, this is another great price. Hisatsune won the 2023 Open de France at Le Golf National. He has gained strokes on the field with his driver and irons in all five starts on TOUR this season. Ryo's best finishes are T2 at the Farmers, T10 in Phoenix, and T8 at Pebble Beach. He cooled off recently, finishing T45 at the Genesis and T33 at the Arnold Palmer. 

However, those were on long, driver-heavy courses, while TPC Sawgrass is a better fit for his game. He ranks 13th on my "stat" model for THE PLAYERS at Betsperts, including ninth in this field for Total Driving, which blends distance with accuracy. Hisatsune has played well on similar tracks, like Sedgefield and Innisbrook, where he finished T2 and T3. 

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THE PLAYERS Championship ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Hideki Matsuyama 

Season Standings: 3,719th with $1,372,750

• Sony Open: Maverick McNealy, T24
• The American Express: Harry Hall, T24
• Farmers Insurance Open: Adam Scott, T30
• WM Phoenix Open: Jordan Spieth, missed cut
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose, T37
• The Genesis Invitational: Cameron Young, T7
• The Cognizant Classic: Nicolai Højgaard, T6
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Scottie Scheffler, T24

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.