Player Prop As Pirates Take On Reds

Reds vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

From a sports betting standpoint, this weekend was not the most ideal one for me. I hit another WNBA post, but lost both of the MLB plays that I shared this weekend. That canceled out the 2-0 day that I had on Friday and made me lose some of the progress that I had over the days. I suppose, overall, going 3-2 in the five games was a successful result. However, baseball hasn't been quite the ATM that it was to start the beginning of the season. I'm looking to get back to the money making as the Reds take on the Pirates. 

We are not quite at the 50% mark of this MLB season, but we are rapidly approaching it with most teams playing somewhere around 75 games already. At the end of this week we will be at the midway point (not the Mid-Summer Classic, that's the All-Star Game) and we will have a better interpretation of specifically where some of these teams are… or will we? Right now, there are 13 teams in professional baseball all within five games of being a .500 club. In the NL Central alone, there are four teams that all have 34 or 35 wins today. When you're all bunched up together like that, and with three Wild Card spots, you feel like you're one good stretch from being right back in the race. The Reds are one of those teams. They went through a disastrous stretch of baseball before they finally turned it around and were able to make up a lot of the ground that they lost. Tonight they have a tall task of taking on Paul Skenes. In order to combat him, they are turning to Carson Spiers. It seems like they have been trying to stretch Spiers out so that he could become a starter for a while now, but this will be his first official start of the season. He's gone 19.1 innings this year and allowed just five earned runs on the season. He also has a 1.19 WHIP but has only tossed 19.1 innings this season. He has not faced the Pirates at all in his career. 

Jun 24, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; The Cincinnati Reds logo on the sleeve of Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) while he prepares on deck during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Great American Ball Park. (Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports)

The Pirates are another one of the teams that has a 34-37 record for the season. I've mentioned this before, but the team should be encouraged by the fact that they are probably slightly ahead of schedule to at least be competing within the division this season. They have an identical record to that of the Reds, and looking at the statistics, it is fairly easy to see why. They have a .232 average compared to .226 of the Reds. Their On-Base and Slugging percentages are virtually identical and the Reds only have five more home runs. From a pitching standpoint, the Pirates have a slightly higher team ERA and a WHIP that is just .03 different than Cincy. I bring this up mostly because the Reds were one of the teams favored to win the division this season. The Pirates were last in the choices for the book but here they are performing above expectations. Part of the success is that Paul Skenes is now on the Major League roster and his impact can be noticed easily. Skenes is now 3-0 for the season with a 2.43 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. For the season, Skenes has tossed 33.1 innings and allowed just nine earned runs so far. A lot of those runs have come from the long ball. Skenes also has 46 strikeouts for the season and has struck out at least seven hitters in five of his six starts. 

The value for this game is probably on the Pirates, but I don't recommend fading Skenes. He's already proven he is a true Ace, and frankly, I'd be a bit surprised if he doesn't win the NL Rookie of the Year award (for those wondering he is behind Shota Imanaga, which is understandable). I am going to take a bit of a shot here and say that Skenes will strikeout 9 or more Reds today. He is +130 to go over 8.5 strikeouts. The Reds strike out more than all other National League teams outside of the Rockies. I think Skenes will be sharp here and get them at least 9 times. I'd sprinkle the 10+ at +210 as well. I see double digits for him today. 

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