Player Prop For Saints Vs. Rams
Saints vs. Rams, 8:15 ET
Thursday Night Football has been a crapshoot this season with very few good games. Tonight, however, it should be different. We get two teams that are both going for a playoff spot and neither one of them is playing with a backup quarterback. For the most part, we've gotten backup quarterbacks and/or bad teams. Last week I ended up going 4-3 but had one of the worst picks I've ever made as I predicted the Raiders would score under 19.5 points in the game. They had 21 after one quarter. I'm hopeful I can cash this player prop in tonight's game between the Saints and Rams.
The Saints are 7-7 and in a division that seemingly no one wants to win for the second straight season. The Falcons and Buccaneers are still in the mix for the division, and obviously, the Saints still have a chance to win it. It is kind of unfair that one of these teams will host a playoff game, but that's how it works out. The Saints are playing much better defensively over the last two contests as they've allowed just six points in both of their past games. Those were both wins, but neither team they beat was what I would consider an offensive juggernaut. The Giants couldn't muster much against them but do have a respectable defense and they won 24-6. Similar statements can be made about the Panthers. They have a respectable defense, but their offense is terrible. The Saints have played well on offense the last three games, putting up 24 or more points in all of them. Those were home games though. They've only scored more than 20 points once in a road game this season. The biggest issue facing the Saints this week is that Marshon Lattimore is likely out for this game.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 01: Alvin Kamara #41 of the New Orleans Saints looks on against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on January 01, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
With one of the best passing defenses in the league, missing your cornerback might not feel like a big blow because their defense relies on more than just one player, but Lattimore was likely to guard Cooper Kupp all night. The Rams offense has been playing better lately. Well, in general, the Rams are playing better having won four of their past five games and vaulting themselves back into the playoff conversation. Their only loss came on a cross-country trip as they lost in overtime to the Ravens. Matthew Stafford is playing very well over this stretch as well. Over this stretch, he has thrown for 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He also is completing about 64% of his pass attempts in this span. Only one game has seen him throw for less than 200 yards. Don't get me wrong, there will be pressure on him all night long. The Saints defensive front will make it tough, but when you're pressured, you look for your security blanked and that is Kupp. Kupp has been stellar the last two weeks catching eight passes in both games for over 110 receiving yards. He also has hauled in a touchdown in each of the past three weeks.
My play in this one revolves around Kupp. I get that he has had some stinker games and his production has been inconsistent. I also recognize that the Saints pass defense is very good. However, with Lattimore out, I think Kupp has an easier night and will be peppered with targets regularly by Stafford. I expect him to have over 73.5 receiving yards tonight. I really wouldn't be surprised to see another 100-yard game.
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