Player Prop For AL West Battle

Astros vs. Mariners, 9:40 ET

Before the season started, there were only a few divisions that I thought would be pretty easy victories in terms of naming a winner. Now, I'm not saying that anyone won or lost the division after 13 games, but I will say if the season goes anything like how this stretch has gone for teams, I would be dead wrong. The AL West was going to be a two-horse race between the Astros and Mariners, and maybe there would be some pressure from the Rangers. Through the first couple of weeks, the Astros and Mariners both look terrible. 

The Astros come into this game (pending last night's result), with a .500 or worse record. Before yesterday's game, they were just 1-5 in road games. I feel like the Astros are a team that contends no matter who is on the roster. For years they have let key players leave and still seem to be fine. Carlos Correa left and came back. Alex Bregman left. Kyle Tucker was traded away. Justin Verlander also left and came back. You name it, outside of Jose Altuve, the team basically doesn't bother keeping their best players. It is kind of wild. Maybe this is the year it catches up to them? Tonight they send out Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound. He is making his third start of the season. So far, he is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Overall, Mariners hitters haven't been bad against McCullers Jr. Collectively, they are hitting 18-for-63. Randy Arozarena has the most success, going 7-for-15 against him. 

Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images and Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The Mariners were my selection to make the World Series, so I probably gave them the kiss of death. It feels like any team I pick to win something is almost automatically going to lose. Again, I don't want to overreact, but the Mariners have looked rough to start this year. They are 4-9 (again, pending what happened last night) for the season. As a TEAM, they are hitting just .184 for the season and have scored only 40 runs. They were expected to have one of the best lineups in the game. I get that this could just be a slow start, and most people wouldn't notice this if it was the middle of the year, but the Mariners look really bad right now. The only saving grace is the pitching staff looks to be in mid-season form. For the year, the team has a 2.62 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Their starter tonight is Luis Castillo. The right-hander sports a 2.79 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP after two starts. Astros hitters are batting .248 against him in a large sample size. Yordan Alvarez is hitting 9-for-19 against him with four extra base hits. 

I will give you a play for the full game because I'm a nice guy, but this is actually a secondary play for me. I think the total is too low. Castillo is usually good for a couple of runs allowed and McCullers should be as well. Neither team is in good form to back, but the line is a bit off, and I think the Astros are the right side. At least from a value play. I'd still play over 7.5 before taking a side. I'm taking Alvarez to get 2+ total bases. I also like the idea of a hits + runs + RBIs look if you prefer that. Arozarena might be a nice choice too, but he is mostly a singles hitter against McCullers, just for some information. 

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