Pitching Splits Favor Pirates

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks, 3:40 ET

We get a nice afternoon game here on getaway day. This is actually part of the reason that I enjoy baseball betting. We can cash an early ticket on one game, get in on an evening game, and then play West Coast games as well. All day betting is much better than sitting around waiting all day for the bets to take off. I suppose that's why a lot of people also enjoy betting soccer - cash that in the morning and use the profit to bet on American sports at night. Whatever tickles your pickle makes no difference to me, let's just enjoy a bet on the Pirates and Diamondbacks. 

The Pirates have had a disastrous start to the season. Look, expectations for this club were, and are, low. They weren't going to compete for the National League Central, and it was unlikely they would make a run at a Wild Card spot. The question really is what do they do from here? This is a team that has a generational pitcher and he will almost certainly walk away from the team if they don't put some talent around him. I don't have a problem with a losing season, but I do have a problem with the seeming lack of vision from the team. That aforementioned pitcher, Paul Skenes, takes the hill today. Did you know that Skenes is the Cy Young favorite? I have to assume that is a public betting thing, because he is just 3-5 with a 2.36 ERA, and a 0.95 WHIP. I say "just" like those aren't good numbers - they are very good. However, there are pitchers who are better and doing more for their team in the National League. Skenes has been outstanding on the road, going 38.2 innings and allowing just six earned runs in six starts. He has four consecutive quality starts, and has held Diamondbacks hitters to just three hits in 13 at-bats. Corbin Carroll has two of the three hits. 

Arizona D-Backs RHP Zac Gallen delivers during the 1st inning vs. the Brewers during Game 2 of the 2023 NL Wild Card Series at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (John Fisher/Getty Images)

The Diamondbacks are under .500 and look like this might be a year they step back. This is an ultra-competitive NL West and I think there is a possibility that we see three teams make the playoffs from the division, but I'd be surprised to see four. The team got off to a bit of a slow start, and there is still time to turn it around, but losses like yesterday when they blew a three run lead will certainly come back to haunt them. the other problem is that their normally reliable starting staff has looked anything but reliable. Zac Gallen, their ace for the past couple of years, is 3-6 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Gallen has been brutal at home, allowing 25 earned runs in 37.1 innings, good for a 6.03 ERA. Unlike Skenes, Gallen is also in terrible form right now, having allowed 14 earned runs in his past 16.1 innings. Pirates hitters have done well enough against Gallen, getting 17 hits in 64 at-bats. 

I usually like taking the team that blows a lead the night before to get a bounce back. However, it isn't easy to just bounce back against Paul Skenes. The man has been unreal lately, and you can pencil him in for six solid innings once again. Maybe I'm wrong about this, as the line is moving in favor of the Diamondbacks for the full game, but I do like the Pirates. I'll avoid that a bit and take the Pirates for the first five innings. If it is a tie, fine, but I think the market is counting on Gallen to perform a bit more than it should be. Back Pittsburgh through five. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024