Pitching Or Hitting? Who Has The Edge In Yankees Vs. Marlins

Yankees vs. Marlins, 4:10 ET

This article will talk about the game between the Yankees and Marlins, but I feel like I need to mention another game that warrants consideration, but not a full article. The Rockies are +280 against the Dodgers tonight. Tony Gonsolin is a man who has made me a lot of money the last year or so, but he doesn't deserve to be a -355 favorite in almost any game this year. The Rockies are terrible on the road so you can't be them, but this line is off, for those of you who are interested in that sort of thing. Don't add the Dodgers to parlays etc. Just a word of warning. Onto the main event.

Who called this result from the Yankees? They are the worst team in the AL East, which isn't the worst thing in the world considering how talented the division is. However, with the expectations from New York it is hard to believe they sit this low in the standings. I've talked about this a few times now, it really comes at the hands of the offense. They've struggled offensively and with the name value in the lineup, it is a bit shocking. Even with the injury to Aaron Judge, this team batting .232 for the season is really embarrassing. The pitching has dealt with injuries and managed to maintain a better performance than expected. Today they have one of those pitchers who was injured, Nestor Cortes taking the ball. Cortes came back last week and was pretty strong out of the gate, he went four innings and only allowed one hit, a solo home run. That was the entire offensive output for the Astros as the Yankees were able to win 3-1. They aren't going to make the playoffs this season, so I do wonder just how hard they will push Cortes in the remaining games.

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 30: Pitcher Nestor Cortes #65 of the New York Yankees in action against the Kansas City Royals during a game at Yankee Stadium on July 30, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

If you want to talk about wild results for teams, Miami has to be up there. Last season this team lost almost 100 games and had the Cy Young winner. This season, they are competing for a Wild Card spot and their Cy Young winner looks like a shell of himself. Sandy Alcantara, the aforementioned Cy Young, was outstanding last season and posted a 2.28 ERA for the Marlins. This season, his ERA is exactly two runs higher. He does still have some flashes of brilliance - he went eight innings two starts again and allowed just four hits and no earned runs. Then he followed that up with six innings where he allowed four earned runs and three home runs. The Marlins have lost six of his last seven starts, so some of the problem is on a lack of runs support. In those seven starts, I'd say he put them in position to win at least four of the games. Alcantara does have a very good track record against the Yankees though as he has held them to just three hits in 34 at-bats against him. The question really becomes, who are we getting in this game? Is it the Alcantara that is allowing one or two runs over eight innings, or the one that is allowing five or six runs over six innings?

Seven runs is the total for this game. That's low, and it is understandable. If this comes down to who goes deeper in the game, it will almost certainly be Alcantara - if he doesn't go deep in the game, the over will hit. Miami has been unreliable offensively, and so has the Yankees offense. I do think the best play here is to take the under even at seven. It really is a coinflip game, but I think it ends with a final of 3-2 or something similar. I feel like this will be very low scoring or the game flies over the total. I'm more confident that it will be low scoring though.

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