Pitching Matchup Of The Day: Pirates Vs. Brewers

Pirates vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

I went 1-1 yesterday as the Giants couldn't get their job done. It wasn't a terrible look; their offense was just struggling, and Yu Darvish finally started pitching well. Logan Webb was reliable as usual, but he ended up giving up a few runs in the game, and that was it. Now we shift to a different matchup between a couple of squads in the NL Central instead of the NL West. This matchup is between the Pirates and the Brewers, both with very different trajectories for this year. 

The Pirates are a frustrating team for a multitude of reasons. They haven't been very good in years, and despite picking highly in the draft, they have really only managed to get one true difference-maker. The offense has struggled to produce consistency for multiple seasons. I'm not certain that their farm system even has much to offer the big leagues in the next couple of years. Right now, they are hitting just .232 for the year, and they are averaging just 3.5 runs per game. Today they get their lone bright-spot on their roster to take the mound as Paul Skenes is on the mound. For the season, Skenes is 7-8 with a 1.94 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He is 1st in ERA, 4th in WHIP, and 6th in strikeouts. Skenes is only 23 years old, and was just ranked by ESPN as the fourth-best player in the league. This is a guy who truly gives his team a chance to win every game that he starts. The team has just 51 wins, but 12 of those wins have come in games he has started. They have only 17 wins on the road for the season, and five of those have come in Skenes' starts. The Brewers have not been good against Skenes, getting just five hits in 46 at-bats. 

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - JUNE 11: Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on June 11, 2024 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Paul Skenes

The Brewers have been frustrating only to the Cubs fans of the world. They are 30 games over .500 and continue to find different ways to win. They are dominant at home, winning two-thirds of their games there, and they are dominant on the road. The question really is about if Milwaukee can translate this great success in the regular season into success in the postseason. I think that the Brewers have a strong lineup and maybe the only thing that can slow down their offense is a guy like Skenes. To combat Skenes, the Brewers are sending Freddy Peralta to the mound. Peralta is 13-5 for the season with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Those are also strong numbers, but obviously not quite as good as Skenes. Peralta has been better at home this season, pitching to a 2.13 ERA. He has faced Pittsburgh twice this season, allowing four earned runs over 9.1 innings. Overall, the Pirates are hitting just .258 against Peralta. 

It can be a bit misleading reading some of the opening lines. For example, if Peralta wasn't originally scheduled to pitch this game, the Pirates "opening" as a -160 favorite is a bit misleading. As of right now the line for the game says the Pirates are +110, and I just don't see them winning this game. The Brewers have been unreal and so has Skenes, so picking a side is a bit tough. I think we see the Brewers eventually get to the Pirates bullpen, though. I'm backing the Brewers in this one at -130. 

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