Pitching Duel in the Desert Tonight

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

There are pitchers with big names out there that you recognize immediately. The Brewers have one of the best rotations in baseball, even last year's Cy Young winner, but most people probably don't recognize how good their team has been. The same can somewhat be said about the Diamondbacks - they don't have an outstanding rotation, but do have two really good pitchers.

Tonight for the Brewers, one of their under-the-radar starters, Brandon Woodruff, takes the hill. Woodruff has put the Brewers in a situation to win just about every game this season. On the year, he has a 3.31 ERA. If he does struggle, they do tend to come on the road. He has allowed 27 earned runs over 56 innings in road starts - just 13 earned runs in 52.2 innings at home. Still, in his last eight road starts, he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of those games. He hasn't faced the Diamondbacks this season, but they have hit .292 against him in limited at-bats.

Merrill Kelly has been my guy this season. Each year you find a couple of players that you can hitch your wagon to. Kelly has been one of two or three this year that I've really honed in on for games. Kelly has done well in just about every start this season and has been as reliable as just about any pitcher in the game. He has a slightly higher ERA at home, as opposed to on the road, but it isn't very significant. August was a good enough month for him, but it wasn't even his best month of the year (that would be July). So, he can still pitch better.

Both teams are playing very well. Both have won four of their past five games. The Diamondbacks have even scored in double digits in three of their past four outings. The Brewers have scored six or more runs in their last five games. That should stop here as the pitchers will dominate this game. I'm going to take under 7.5 at -120.

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