Pitching Combo Could Keep Score Low At Coors

Guardians vs. Rockies, 8:40 ET

We are now on the verge of two complete months in the books for this baseball season. That will bring us to about a third of the way done with the season. This has been a good campaign already for us, with more winning weeks than losing ones. That doesn't mean I'm ready for the run to end, but it does mean I may look for a few more chances to play some plus money games and see if we can rack up the units in addition to the wins. I'm not sure we will get there tonight, but let's take a look at how we should play the game between the Guardians and the Rockies. 

There have been a lot of surprises in this baseball season, but it is hard to find one more surprising than the AL Central Leading Cleveland Guardians. This season has been great to this point with them almost 20 games over .500 for the season. They've done well at home and on the road, sporting an 18-12 road record thus far. The team is in the top five of the Majors in runs scored with only the Dodgers and Phillies in front of them. That is pretty great company if that is who your offense is being compared with. Jose Ramirez is playing great for them, racking up 15 homers and 54 RBIs already. The Guardians had won nine straight games before yesterday's loss to the Rockies, and are winners of 12 of their past 14 overall. Triston McKenzie is taking the ball for the Guardians today. He's been solid for them, as he typically has been. For the season, McKenzie is 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He's been very good this month as well, going 30.1 innings with eight earned runs allowed. Most of that is the result of homers as he has allowed six this month. He has only made three road start this season, but has been pretty good overall. He struggled in the first start of the season, but a lot of pitchers tend to struggle in the first game. He's done well against the Rockies in the past, holding them to just three hits in 16 at-bats. 

Cleveland Guardians starter Triston McKenzie firing a 4-seam fastball vs. Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

The Rockies are not really surprising this season. The expectation was that they would end up in last place within their division, and they almost certainly will. The team is just 19-34 for the season, continuing the trend where they are decent at home but terrible on the road. They get to play at home this series as they have gone 12-13 to this point in the year. The Rockies are in the bottom half of the league for runs scored, but they are hitting rather well. The team is batting .246 for the season, but it obviously isn't producing runs scored the way they need to. Consider this, they have 50 fewer runs scored this season than the Guardians, but they are batting almost 10 points higher. As usual, their pitching is the problem. So far, the club has a 5.19 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, meaning they are allowing three baserunners every two innings. They also are allowing opponents to hit .278 against them this year. The Rockies have Ryan Feltner taking the hill. Feltner has a 1-4 record with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He's been decent in three starts at Coors this season, allowing just seven earned runs and no home runs over 16 innings pitched. He has pitched two quality starts in his three home starts. Feltner has only faced three Guardians hitters in his career and they are just 1-for-10 against him. 

The biggest concern I have is that McKenzie has been giving up too many home runs lately. Coors Field is not a place you want to allow the ball to get into the air. He's a great pitcher, but if he is going to allow homers, this game could get out of hand for the Guardians quickly. Feltner is pitching rather well this season, especially at home. I think he probably has a slight edge, or at least could keep it close. I'm going to cautiously back the under 10.5 runs in this game as I expect both pitchers to be reasonably effective in this one. I really wouldn't be shocked to see the Rockies win this game either. 

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