Straight Bets, Exotics For 2025 Kentucky Derby, Oaks Double At Churchill Downs

While the main event is Saturday, the 2025 Kentucky Derby weekend technically began on Thursday, aka Thurby, with the Kentucky Oaks as the featured race on Friday. One of the coolest things a sports bettor can do is hit the "Kentucky Oaks-Derby Double," picking the winner for the big races on Friday and Saturday. 

Related: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025 FIELD, POST POSITIONS, MORNING-LINES

Before discussing my picks, here's a brief-ish reminder of ways to bet on horse racing that I wrote in last year's Kentucky Derby article. You can bet a horse to win (first), place (second), and show (third) or "Across the Board", which is betting on all three. There are exotics such as exacta, trifecta, and superfecta for those searching for massive paydays. 

In an exacta, you bet 2+ horses to finish first or second. A trifecta includes 3+ horses for the win-place-show. A superfecta is 4+ horses to finish 1-4. By "boxing" an exacta, bettors can win if at least two of their picks win or place. The same goes for trifecta and superfecta boxes. "Keying" an exotic allows you to put your winner "up top" with horses underneath to finish in any order. 

Without further ado, let's get into my Kentucky Oaks, Derby, and double picks. 

2025 Kentucky Oaks, Derby Bets

Oaks-Derby Double ($5 per horse for a $30 total bet) 

• Oaks (L1): 2-10-11
• Derby (L2): 1-7

Kentucky Oaks 

• $10 Win-Place-Show: #2 Simply Joking ($30 total bet)
• $2 Trifecta Box: 2-10-11 ($12 total bet)

Kentucky Derby 

• $10 Win-Place-Show: #7 Luxor Cafe ($30 total bet)
• $5 Win-Place-Show: #1 Citizen Bull ($15 total bet)
• $1 Trifecta Box: 1-7-17 ($6 total bet)

Kentucky Oaks 2025 Friday, 5:51 p.m. ET post time 

Thirteen horses on a 1 1/8-mile dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $1.5M purse. 

2-Simply Joking 

• Morning Line (ML): 10-1
• Record (Starts-Win-Place-Show): 3-2-1-0
• Jockey: Florent Geroux
• Trainer: Whitworth Beckman
• Best Beyer Speed Figure (BSF): 90

The starting gate is perfect for Simply Joking, who has the fastest "early pace" in this field. She has run faster in all three races and won her only start on a wet track. This might be useful because the weather forecast indicates a two-thirds chance of rain and thunderstorms around post time. 

Simply Joking has back-to-back strong workouts clocking 47 seconds in four furlongs and 58 seconds in a five-furlong work at Churchill. For context, 12 seconds per furlong is considered fast. We are getting a good number since she's been priced between $1.70-$3 in her first three races. 

10-Take Charge Milady 

• ML: 12-1
• Record: 6-2-2-0
• Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
• Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
• BSF: 86

This jockey-trainer combo won the Kentucky Oaks last year with Thorpedo Anna. Take Charge Milady had two consecutive strong workouts recently: 59 seconds over five furlongs two weeks ago at Churchill and 47 seconds over four furlongs at Oaklawn March 30. All of her races have been at least one mile long. She is 2-1-0 in four starts this year with a win by four lengths on a wet track. 

11-Good Cheer 

• ML: 6-5
• Record: 6-6-0-0
• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• BSF: 91

No one likes using favorites, especially in horse races, but Good Cheer's undefeated record speaks for itself. She is coming off her fastest race, (tied for the fastest speed in this field), winning the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks by 3.5 lengths in March. Her tactical speed works for the No. 11 starting gate, and Good Cheer has won three times at Churchill. 

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Kentucky Derby 2025 Saturday, 6:57 p.m. ET post time 

Nineteen horses on a 1.25-mile dirt track for 3-year-olds with a $5M purse. 

1-Citizen Bull 

• ML: 20-1
• Record: 6-4-0-1
• Jockey: Martin Garcia
• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• BSF: 98

He had a blazing-fast workout at Churchill Down on Monday, running five furlongs in just 58 seconds. Citizen Bull faded at the end of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last month, finishing fourth, 9.75 lengths behind the Kentucky Derby betting favorite, #8 Journalism. Before that, he won three consecutive graded stakes races, including the Grade 1 American Pharoah and Grade 1 Breeders' Juvenile Cup. 

These are the best odds of Citizen Bull's career, and he has one of the fastest "early paces" in the Derby, so the No. 1 post suits him well. Hopefully, Citizen Bull learned from his disappointing finish at Santa Anita and has enough in the tank to finish strong at Churchill. At these odds, I'll use him in my trifecta and bet him across the board. 

7-Luxor Cafe 

• ML: 15-1
• Record: 6-4-1-0
• Jockey: Joao Moreira
• Trainer: Hori Noriyuki
• BSF: Not applicable due to only racing in Japan

There's a 90% chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday, so these horses will likely race on a sloppy/muddy track at Churchill. Luxor Cafe has three wins and a place in four starts on wet tracks. Also, Japan's horse racing is on the rise, and a Japanese thoroughbred, Forever Young, lost in a photo finish in last year's Kentucky Derby. 

Luxor Cafe has run faster in five consecutive races with a four-race winning streak, including three straight stakes races, and has been the favorite in every start. The No. 7 horse's speed ratings are slower than the favorite's, Journalism. But, Luxor Cafe starts alongside the No. 8 horse, and he's a strong closer, so he can draft Journalism and pass him on the home stretch. 

Jockey Joao Moreira atop 2025 Kentucky Derby contender Luxor Cafe during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville. (Photo credit: Matt Stone/Courier Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Luxor Cafe has "championship DNA" in his blood, and he's raced in bigger fields than the favorite. His sire is American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic winner. Four of Journalism's five career races have been five-horse fields, with the other having nine rivals. In contrast, Luxor Cafe's smallest field is 10 horses. 

This will be a fast race. There is a lot of speed starting on the rail, and the No. 20 horse, Owen Almighty, has the quickest "early pace" in this field and has to get out to a fast start. Given Luxor Cafe's odds, which should get higher closer to post time because no one is touting him, and his pedigree and experience in big fields, the No. 7 is my favorite bet for the Kentucky Derby. 

17-Sandman 

• ML: 6-1
• Record: 8-3-1-2
• Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
• Trainer: Mark Casse
• BSF: 99

I'll disclose my bias up front: I'm from Saratoga and Sandman breaking his maiden at The Spa matters to me. However, the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner has "hit the board" in four of his five career stakes races. The No. 17 horse beat two Kentucky Derby rivals at Arkansas and "his huge closing kick fits very well here in a race loaded with gate speed," per the Daily Racing Form. 

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