Phillies Will Top Cardinals In Pitching Mismatch

Phillies vs. Cardinals, 1:15 ET

2-1 over the past couple of days isn't anything to sneeze at, but it does feel like I somehow have also left a bit on the table. That's fine, it is a long season and it is easier to be happy about 2-1 than it is to be questioning how you went 1-2. Today we shift our focus to a day game on getaway day as the Phillies take on the Cardinals in St. Louis. 

If you're a poker player or gambler, you probably know the Phillies are like the guy that plays a lot of hands, but isn't going all in. They are the one that grabs enough chips to hang around then seem to push their chips in once they hit the final table. This is a strategy that a lot of NBA teams use and it works well. In baseball a season can slip away from you if you aren't careful, but the Phillies seem to mess around in the regular season, then turn it on around September and make the playoffs. This isn't intended to be a shot at the Braves, but think about them from the ‘90s, they didn’t have that second gear. The Phillies seem to be able to to lock in after not caring as much during the regular season. All of this is to say they can be a bit hard to predict during the regular season. Today, they send out Aaron Nola to the mound. He is the poster child for confusing and hard to predict. He has Ace potential, but he doesn't consistently live up to those expectations. This season, he has gone 10 innings and allowed six earned runs. All six of them came against the Braves in his first start of the season. In his career, he has been very good against the Cardinals, holding their hitters to 22 hits in 112 at-bats. 

The Cardinals are not quite the unpredictable team that the Phillies are. The franchise has had a ton of success over the years, and despite being very bad last season, there is a bit of optimism for this year. So far, they are just 6-6 in the 12 games they've played. If they are going to take a very winnable division this season, they need to make sure they get every ounce of production out of their pitching staff. One of their pitchers, Lance Lynn, is a guy that might not have much left in the tank, but when he is on, he is amazing. Lynn has made two starts for the Cardinals this year, in the first one he was great, allowing just four hits over four innings and no runs. In the next game, he somehow allowed three home runs and eight hits over 4.2 innings. The crazy part is he held the Dodgers scoreless, but the Marlins rocked him. 

I like Lynn and have made good money off of him in the past, but I think this is a good opportunity to fade him. The Phillies are the better team - even if the Cardinals do stack up against them fairly well offensively. Aaron Nola could absolutely come out and toss a stinker, but right now, before we start seeing some trends with splits and things, you have to invest in the better pitcher. I'll take the Phillies to win this one at -125. If I can get them at -135 or lower for the first five innings, I'd take that instead. 

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