Phillies Will Put Braves' Season On Brink With A Game 2 NLDS Win
The 4-seed Philadelphia Phillies (1-0) have a chance to put their foot on the throats of the 1-seed Atlanta Braves (0-1) Monday. Game 2 of the Phillies-Braves 2023 NL Division Series at Truist Park has a 6:07 p.m. ET 1st pitch.
Philadelphia won the NLDS opener 3-0 Saturday. The Phillies used seven arms to out-duel Atlanta ace Spencer Strider. This is a rematch from last year's postseason. Philly upset the Braves 3-1 in the 2022 NLDS en route to a 2022 World Series appearance.
The Braves gives LHP Max Fried (8-1, 2.55 ERA) the ball for Game 2. While Philadelphia counters with RHP Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA). Wheeler pitched six innings in Philly's 4-1 win vs. the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series.
Wheeler is 2-0 in three starts vs. the Braves this year. He is allowed 7 ER and 4 HR in 19.0 IP with a 21/6 K/BB rate. Atlanta plated six with 3 HRs vs. Wheeler in a 7-6 Game 2 win in the 2022 NLDS vs. Philadelphia. But, Fried got roughed up for six runs (4 ER) over 3.1 IP in that game.
Phillies at Braves Game 2
Betting odds for the Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 2 of the 2023 NL Division Series.
This is just too good of a number for the Phillies to pass up. Since the start of September, Atlanta's bullpen has a 5.32 ERA and the 3rd-worst FIP ("fielding independent pitching") in MLB, according to FanGraphs.
However, Philadelphia's bullpen has a 2.74 ERA and the 6th-best FIP in baseball. Plus, Wheeler has a better expected slash line, K%, and BB% vs. the Braves than Fried does against the Phillies, according to Statcast.
The long layoff from the regular season to the playoffs hurt the Braves. Their bats got cold in the 2022 NLDS vs. the Phillies. Atlanta three of fewer runs in three of their four 2022 NLDS games.
Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler pitches vs. the Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
The Braves have a hitting edge vs. most MLB teams but not the Phillies. Go through both orders, and tell me which is deadlier. It's hard to do. Phillies All-Star Bryce Harper has a playoff gear and Philly's lineup has several tough righty hitters to rake Fried.
We are going to have a fade the public angle for Game 2. Most bettors will think: "There's no way Philly will upset Atlanta for a 2nd straight postseason". But, this NLDS feels a lot like the last one in that the Phillies are the hotter team and the Braves don't have enough pitching for the playoffs.
My prediction: Phillies 5, Braves 2