Phillies Can Coast To Victory With Nola On Mound

Phillies vs. Tigers, 6:40 ET

Another mixed bag of a weekend, and really a mixed bag of June for me this year. I started the year very hot, but as the temperatures in the real world rose, my betting slips cooled down a bit. Don't get me wrong, I'm still up for the season, but I've had a harder time lately than I did for the first couple of months. I'll adjust and get back to what works. It can be hard to trust in that, and having patience for it is even more difficult, but I know it will come. I'm hopeful that today's game between the Phillies and Tigers will be the start of a nice run. 

The Phillies were clearly the best team in the National League for a stretch. Now the Mookie Betts is out for a while, I'd guess they can still lay claim to that title. While they aren't winning games at an insane rate anymore, they do still have almost double the wins to losses this season. The team is hitting well and finding ways to beat you both with station-to-station baseball and with the long ball. Bryce Harper is having an MVP caliber season and leading the team in home runs. What I really like is that Alec Bohm is leading the squad in RBIs. There are very few teams that can say they have two guys with 50 RBIs for the season already. Cleveland, Baltimore, New York (Yankees), and Los Angeles (Dodgers) are the only four that have the distinction outside of Philadelphia. The Phillies do have another guy right on the heels as well as Kyle Schwarber is almost there. Tonight isn't as much about the hitters as it is about the pitcher. Aaron Nola takes the bump and tries to take down the Tigers. For a while, Nola was having one of the best seasons of his career. He did get rocked a couple of games ago against the Braves as he allowed eight earned runs over 3.2 innings, but he responded well enough, going six innings and allowing just three earned runs against the Padres. Overall, he has a 3.54 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He has been a reliable starter that has churned out a ton of quality starts this season.  Most Tigers hitters don't have a ton of experience against him, but Mark Canha is a guy you might want to consider for fantasy lineups as he has gone 5-for-10 with three doubles and a homer against Nola. 

ST LOUIS, MO - AUGUST 24: Casey Mize #12 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on August 24, 2021 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images)

While there is a lot of reason for optimism with the Tigers this season, there also has to be a bit of frustration. The team isn't quite as good as we thought they could be after a month or two of the season. Now they are sitting under .500 and I highly doubt unless they add some bats that they will be able to find a way to climb above the mark at any point this year. My expectation is that the club will probably be sellers at the deadline rather than reinvest into this year. The hitting has never really been there and outside of Tarik Skubal, the club doesn't have a ton of reliable pitching. Today's starter, Casey Mize, is in his first full season back, and you have to wonder if he is ready for a full season worth of work this year. This will be Mize's 15th start, and he sports a 4.43 ERA, which is fine overall. He doesn't go overly deep into games, but he also doesn't allow all that many runs. They clearly are being a bit cautious with him, which makes sense especially now that it is rather unlikely they will make the playoffs. Phillies hitters are just 5-for-25 against Mize in their careers, and none of the hits went further than a single. 

While I'm not crazy about Aaron Nola on the road, I do think he is the better and more reliable pitcher in this matchup. I think he probably will produce a quality start while Mize will likely allow three runs over four or five innings. That does make me lean toward the over for the first five innings, but I think the Phillies offense is just too good for the Tigers pitching to overcome in this game with Nola giving them the edge. I'll back Philly on the run line here.

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