Phillies And Padres Pitchers Should Lead The Way

Phillies vs. Padres, 9:40 ET

Last season I actually thought this might be the NCLS matchup for the playoffs. I was half correct… which means nothing, but it does make me feel better, and making me feel better is good for my soul. Both teams are off to decent enough starts this year and now square off for the first time this season as the Phillies take on the Padres in San Diego tonight. 

The Phillies come into the game after enjoying a nice day of rest and heading out to California after a trip to Cincinnati. I tend to compare sports quite a bit, and in this case looking at a team traveling to the West Coast from the East, I usually favor the home team. The body clocks for most of the Phillies will be at almost midnight when this game starts. Sure, they have a day off between, but it is a bit of concern for me. On a neutral field and neutral time zone, I probably would say that the Phillies have the better overall team. Tonight, they will rely on one of their better pitchers, Aaron Nola, taking the ball. Nola has been off to a nice start with a 3-1 record and a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 ERA. None of those numbers (aside from the wins) are top-20 or even top-25 in the league, but if they were to stay all season, I think he would be very happy and probably even garner some Cy Young noise. Nola has been strong on the road in two starts with just two solo home runs allowed over 11.2 innings. After struggling in his first start of the season, he has gone 27 innings and allowed five earned runs. For comparison, in that first start against the Braves, he allowed six earned over 4.1 innings. Tonight should be a bit harder of competition – he has faced the Nationals, Cardinals, Rockies, and White Sox. Only one of those teams has an offense that you should consider a true threat. Nola has had good success against the Padres with just nine hits allowed in 47 at-bats. 

The Phillies take on the Diamondbacks. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

The Padres are right around .500 which seems to be where the team lives not only this year, but most of the previous seasons. With the offensive talent, and the pitching that the team has, it is hard to believe. Enough about that, let’s focus on how they are doing right now. Collectively, the team is hitting well with an average above .250 and they’ve scored 130 runs, good for the top portion of the league. The pitching staff seems to do their job with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. With numbers like that, the team should be much better than .500, but it seems like the offense and pitching both work well on the same days and fail on the same days. They’ve only played in five one run games this year which comes out to less than 20% of their games. Joe Musgrove takes the pill today as he looks to navigate the tough Phillies lineup. Musgrove is one of my favorite pitchers the past few years, and his numbers may not look great, but he has done fairly well. He has three quality starts in his four outings this month, but has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his six starts. Phillies hitters are hitting just .235 against him over 119 at-bats. 

I think this is a good game to take the under. We have two strong starting pitchers. I wouldn’t call either of them true Aces, but they both have the capability to have stretches when they are both on their game. I am a bit concerned that Nola hasn’t had to face anyone tough in a while, and Musgrove is giving up runs to everyone, but I think this is a game where we can see enough factors to show us that the under 7.5 is the correct choice. 

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