3M Open 2025 Best Bets, Odds, Course Preview, 'One-And-Done' Pick

For most non-die-hard golf fans, the PGA TOUR 2025 season ended this past weekend at The 153rd Open Championship. All that's left is the FedExCup Playoffs, which few care about, and the final two tournaments of the regular season, including this week's 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. 

Yet, for the true golf gambling grinders, myself included, the 3M Open is a chance to win money without the fear of World No. 1 and the 2025 Champion Golfer of the Year, Scottie Scheffler, dummying the field. His masterclass at The Open officially makes this the "Scottie Scheffler Era," and you could argue all golf bets moving forward should be in the "Winner Without Scheffler" markets.  

Hopefully, I can pick off a winner at the 3M Open to stop my losing skid. I hit a top-20 bet and two of my three head-to-head wagers at The Open Championship, but still lost -3.04 units (u) overall. This week, I have a lighter betting card with only outright and my One-And-Done selection. Without further ado, here are my picks for TPC Twin Cities. 

3M Open 2025 Betting Card

‘Four Horsemen’ for TPC Twin Cities

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below, and they may have changed since then. 

• Akshay Bhatia (+4000) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.
• Michael Thorbjornsen (+3500) via FanDuel, risking 0.57u
• Emiliano Grillo (+5000) via DraftKings, risking 0.4u.
• Kevin Roy (+8000) via FanDuel, risking 0.25u.

Akshay Bhatia (+4000)

After winning the 2024 Valero Texas Open, Bhatia was supposed to take another step this season. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened … Yet. Yes, the majors have concluded, but there are still American Ryder Cup roster spots open and the FedExCup Playoffs. 

If Akshay can play his way onto the Ryder Cup team by winning one of the final two events in the regular season and do well in the playoffs, 2025 would be a massive success. Plus, we are getting a good price on Bhatia because he hasn’t been in contention since finishing T3 at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. 

According to DataGolf.com, last year’s 3M Open had one of the weakest fields of the season, where Akshay finished T64 with +2000 odds. But, low-key, Bhatia has played well recently and should be closer to that +2000 price from last season. 

Bhatia has gained strokes on approach in six consecutive starts, including the Memorial Tournament (signature event), U.S. Open, Travelers Championship (signature event), and The Open. Akshay has been struggling on the greens lately, but, at double the price, I’m willing to gamble on him "flipping the putter" this week. 

Michael Thorbjornsen (+3500)

I overlooked Thorbjornsen’s missed cut at the 2024 Rocket Classic to bet him at Detroit Golf Club this year, and it almost paid off. The 2024 PGA TOUR University valedictorian finished T4 at the 2025 Rocket Classic and was one stroke out of the playoff. He missed a couple of easy putts that cost him, but Thorbjornsen played great otherwise. 

Michael Thorbjornsen hits a tee shot during the second round of the 3M Open 2024 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. (Photo credit: David Berding/Getty Images). 

Regardless, the Stanford Cardinal was -5 after the first round of last year’s 3M Open before firing a second-round 77 to miss the cut. While TPC Twin Cities isn’t a difficult course, there are a bunch of water hazards, and Thorbjornsen went swimming several times in the second round. 

However, he’s played well since a T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship in April, making six straight cuts, and TPC Twin Cities compares to Detroit Golf Club, where Thorbjornsen almost won. Ultimately, Thorbjornsen is a top-five most-talented golfer in this field, and anything above +3000 is a bet. 

Emiliano Grillo (+5000)

Grillo is a streaky player and has had nice outings heading into his only two PGA TOUR wins: 2015 Frys.com Open and 2023 Charles Schwab. The Argentinian had three top-25 finishes in his five starts before the 2015 Frys.com win and three top-25s ahead of his 2023 Charles Schwab win, including two top-10s. 

Well, he’s finished in the top-25 in four of his last five starts entering this year’s 3M Open: T16 at the Charles Schwab, T24 at the RBC Canadian Open, T19 at the U.S. Open, and a second in a playoff loss to Brian Campbell at the John Deere Classic. 

Also, Grillo has great history at the 3M Open, with a T3 in 2020, a missed cut in 2021, T2 in 2022, T10 in 2023, and T24 last year. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee and with the putter in four of his five career 3M Opens. 

Finally, TPC Twin Cities has a ton of water hazards, putting a premium on accuracy. Grillo is 18th on TOUR this season in driving accuracy and sixth in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) over the last 24 rounds, per Bet The Number. 

Kevin Roy (+8000) 

I bet Roy at +5000 at the John Deere, where he finished T3 and was one stroke out of making the playoff between Campbell and Grillo. According to DataGolf.com, this year's 3M Open field is slightly stronger than the John Deere's, and Roy's odds are 30 points higher. 

Granted, his play has regressed a little since the John Deere, missing the cut at the ISCO Championship and finishing T35 at the Barracuda Championship, which are "alternate events" to bigger tournaments on the PGA TOUR calendar. But that doesn't justify this much of a change in Roy's betting odds. 

Meanwhile, he is fourth in my 24-round model at Bet The Number, i.e., has value at this price. Over that span, Roy is seventh in this field for SG: APP, and eighth in approach shots from 175-200 yards, where most of the approach shots come from at TPC Twin Cities. 

Those rounds include his T15 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, T18 at the RBC Canadian Open, T8 at the Rocket Classic, and the John Deere. Three of those tournaments are at TPC courses with similar layouts and difficulty, and the Rocket Classic and John Deere are also in the Midwest. 

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3M Open ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Emiliano Grillo 

Despite Jon Rahm's unimpressive T34 at The Open Championship last week, I'm still 12th in the "Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup". Rather than lay up, so to speak, and pick a golfer higher up the oddsboard, I'm using someone who won't be popular this week to gain ground on the people ahead of me in the standings. 

Furthermore, Tony Finau (+1400) is the only 3M Open winner with less than +8000 odds since becoming a PGA TOUR event in 2019. The volatility of TPC Twin Cities due to all the water on the course makes this tournament a little random, so it's a good spot for a "contrarian selection". 

Lastly, it's weird to say "I've been saving Emiliano Grillo for the 3M Open," but I have. As soon as the two-time PGA TOUR winner started playing well, I knew I'd be betting him this week. He was on my betting card in 2023 when he finished T2 at the 3M Open, and I had Grillo at +8000 odds when he won the 2023 Charles Schwab. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X throughout the entire season.