Padres Run Line, Guardians Are Two Solid Looks Sunday In MLB
If you're like me and sitting around Sunday and watching the 2023 Travelers Championship on the PGA Tour, you want something else to gamble on. Well, it's the summer and we got old trusty — the MLB — to bet.
As of Sunday morning, June 25 my MLB record sits at 51-51 and my balance is -3.55 units (u). The only two games worth betting on MLB's Sunday card are the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Guardians and Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres.
MLB Sunday Stuff
Milwaukee Brewers (39-37) at Cleveland Guardians (37-39)
Betting odds for the Brewers vs. the Guardians in MLB Sunday, June 25th from DraftKings at 11:13 a.m. ET.
After losing the series opener 7-1, Cleveland evened the set with a 4-2 win Saturday. Milwaukee turns to ace RHP Corbin Burnes (5-5, 3.96 ERA) for the rubber match to face Guardians RHP Aaron Civale (2-2, 2.67 ERA).
Since Burnes is the 2021 NL Cy Young winner, most casual MLB bettors are familiar with him. But, Civale ranks 18th in FanGraphs' Stuff+ metric out of MLB starters with at least 30 innings under their belt.
Furthermore, Civale has a better average game score over his last seven starts, has allowed 10 fewer earned runs (22-12) and two fewer home runs (8-6) than Burnes.
Guardians All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase celebrates the team's 5-0 win over the Houston Astros at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Also, Cleveland has much better relief pitching. The Guardians' relievers have the 2nd-best ERA in MLB (the Brewers are 18th) and 11th in FIP ("fielding independent pitching") while the Brewers are 27th.
The Brew Crew's lineup struggles vs. right-handed pitching and has been is in bad form. They rank 25th in both wRC+ (87) and wOBA (.301) and tied for 19th in BB/K (0.36) against righties.
Milwaukee's lineup is 28th in both wRC+ (61) and wOBA (.262), and 27th in WAR (-0.2) over the last week, per FanGraphs. Whereas Cleveland's lineup is 8th in wRC+ (118), 9th in wOBA (.341), and 10th in WAR (1.2) during that stretch.
MLB BET #1: 1.1u on Guardians (-110) at DraftKings
Washington Nationals (29-47) at San Diego Padres (37-40)
Betting odds for the Nationals vs. Padres in MLB Sunday from DraftKings as of 11:45 a.m. ET.
The Nationals got this series to a rubber match by rallying back from a 13-3 whooping in the series opener to shutout the Padres 2-0 Saturday.
Washington starts former San Diego prospect, LHP MacKenzie Gore (3-6, 4.02 ERA), Sunday who lost earlier this year to the Padres. Gore gave up three earned runs over 4.2 innings in the Nationals' 7-4 loss to the Padres in May.
Washington used its three best relievers in Saturday's 2-0 win over San Diego. The Nationals' bullpen ranks 29th in FIP, 28th in both WAR and HR/9 rate, according to FanGraphs.
Padres OF Juan Soto with teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. after hitting a home run in the 8th inning vs. the Washington Nationals at Petco Park in San Diego. (Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images)
On top of that San Diego's lineup smashes lefties. The Padres is 8th or better in wRC+ (113), wOBA (.339), ISO (.201), and BB/K rate (0.45), vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
Plus, San Diego's lineup is raking lately, especially OF Juan Soto. Over the last week, the Padres are 3rd in WAR (1.8), 7th in wRC+ (120), and 8th in wOBA (.345). Soto has a 308 wRC+, 0.9 WAR, and .430 wOBA over that span.