Padres Pull Off Upset Hosting White Sox, Cease Saturday

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The Chicago White Sox (78-79) send their ace out Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game interleague series at the San Diego Padres (86-71). Chicago won the series opener 3-1 Friday for its 2nd consecutive victory and extended San Diego’s losing skid to 3 games.

The Padres need this game like blood and are just 1.5 games in front of the Philadelphia Phillies for the final NL wild-card berth. The White Sox are eliminated and looks like they have senioritis. Chicago lost 8 straight from Sept. 20-28 prior to its current 2-game winning streak.

We are getting a cheap price for the Padres at home because White Sox’s starter Saturday — RHP Dylan Cease (14-7, 2.06 ERA) — is one of the best in the biz. While Padres starting RHP Mike Clevinger (6-7, 4.49 ERA) is struggling down the stretch of the regular season.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

BET: Padres (-105) ML, all the way up to -120

(Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

Cease is a beast and has much better form entering Saturday than Clevinger. He has a 1.99 ERA over his last 7 starts and Clevinger has a sky-high 6.35 ERA in his last 7 starts. But, the White Sox's lineup has mailed it in over the past couple of weeks.

Chicago hasn't scored more than 4 runs in the last 9 games and is terrible vs. right-handed pitching. Per FanGraphs, the White Sox are 26th in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA, 28th in BB/K rate and 29th in ISO against righties.

Also, Clevinger has pitched well against bad teams. The Padres are 11-3 when Clevinger faces teams with a losing record. San Diego has a +2.3 margin of victory and +30.0% return on investment in those games.

Finally, we're fading a betting market that's blindly backing the better starter. Per Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the money at the time of publishing is on Chicago's ML. But, with the Padres, we are getting a more motivated team with a better bullpen and a more potent lineup.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the SAN DIEGO PADRES (-115).

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Oct. 1 at 2:30 p.m. ET

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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events. Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB. Clark graduated from St. John University.