Over Yesterday, Under Today

Red Sox vs. Yankees, 7:35 ET

I wrote about this exact matchup yesterday. I won this matchup yesterday so I am looking to go back to the well to grab more units from these two AL East powerhouses. Maybe that's an overstatement for at least one of the teams, but, frankly, I don't care. Not much in baseball is more exciting than when two teams square off like this and I'm ready for it as the Red Sox and Yankees take each other on again. 

In game one, I played the over. We had Walker Buehler taking on Will Warren. That wasn't exactly the matchup of the century or something, but it was a good enough pitching matchup. Buehler did a good job against the Yankees in the World Series, and Warren has been better of late. Well, Buehler struggled through just two innings for the Red Sox, allowing five earned runs on seven hits and two walks. The bullpen did okay, allowing a few more runs, but it wasn't enough to keep the Yankees down as they won 9-6. My play was on the over so I was happy with this outcome. If we are being honest, this was one of the easier cashes all season. The Yankees scored five runs in the first inning and another two in the second which meant we only need two in the next seven innings to be successful. We got another eight runs in the game. Aaron Judge was a monster, once again, going 3-5 boosting his batting average to an absurd .395. In fact, all Yankee starters had a hit in the game, and only two of them didn't get a run scored.

Apr 13, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA;  Boston Red Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) high fives teammates after he pitched against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Today should be a bit different. Sure, the Yankees offense can get to anyone, but the reality is that they have to face one of the better pitchers in the American League, a guy that could be a Cy Young contender this season in Garrett Crochet. For the season Crochet has knitted himself a great campaign with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He also already has 101 strikeouts thrown in just 82 innings. If we are being objective here, the ERA will increase if that WHIP doesn't dip below one. You cant allow a base runner every inning on average and expect to have that low of an ERA. Crochet hasn't faced the Yankees much in his career, but Cody Bellinger is 2-for-2 with a homer against him. The Yankees send out Ryan Yarbrough to battle against Crochet. Yarbrough has been surprisingly good for New York this season with a 3-0 record and a 2.83 ERA. He also is sporting a 0.99 WHIP and striking out about one hitter per inning. He's been very good against the Red Sox, holding them to just eight hits in 41 at-bats. To be clear, Rafael Devers is 6-for-27 against him so the rest of the team is just 2-for-14. 

This is not yesterday's game. While that may seem like a stupid statement, just because something happens in one game doesn't mean that it will happen in the next one. This game will go under the total. Both of these pitchers are going to dominate the opposing lineup. I like Crochet, and I like Yarbrough. Back the under for this one and don't look back. 

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