Outkick Bets: NFL Picks

It’s getting good in the league. I love this time of the year. You can feel the pressure start to kick up on the field and this year may be even more so. There’s another game for everyone but also, there are 18 teams either leading or within two games of their division. A lot of really good teams and games left.

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We start this breakdown by discussing a huge piece missing for New Orleans again this week, Alvin Kamara. Two straight weeks without a playmaker of his esteem will stress that Saints offense that is already waist-deep in important injuries. That said, they rely heavily on their defense anyway. In fact, no one has allowed fewer points in the NFC than these Saints. Their task is to go into Philly and beat a team that hasn’t won a home game all season. Jalen Hurts is 22nd in the NFL amongst regular starting quarterbacks in QB rating and 19th in completion percentage. This could be a quick one too. Philly boasts the top rush offense while New Orleans will counter with the 3rd best rush defense. A fascinating battle with a lot on the line and I’ll take the under 43.5

Packers (-1.5) @ Vikings

Aaron Rodgers had quite the time knocking the rust off his pads last week. Despite his “struggles”, the Packers shut down the Seahawks completely. Now it’s back to the division where Rodgers will take on the team he’s been the least successful against in the Great White North. Rodgers is 15-9-1 against Minnesota while he’s 39-10 against the other two NFC North foes. Still, he’s been very good against the Vikings, posting his 3rd highest completion percentage against any opponent (67.9%). He’s also got an elite defense behind him. Those Packers have only allowed 58 points in the last 5 games. Kirk Cousins’ only reprieve may be the potential loss of Rahsaan Gary for Green Bay, who is having a career year in sacks (5.5). As a side note but important one, the Packers are 9-1 ATS and a cool 5-0 ATS on the road. I’m riding the Pack, -1.5.

Colts @ Bills (-7)

We will crown a new NFL rushing leader in this game. Jonathan Taylor is tied with Derrick Henry for the top spot and unless you’ve been under a rock, you know why. He’s sitting right now with 216 more yards than his nearest competitor, Nick Chubb. You better believe this offense runs through that young man too, they rank 6th in the NFL in rushing offense. Buffalo is a stingy, ruthless defense. In all major categories they are 1st, 2nd or 3rd and even in defeats, they’ve been strong. They are also a monster on offense, ranking top 10 in the air and on the ground and scoring. The Colts are in a hellish stretch now. It’s Buffalo on Sunday, then Tampa, Houston, New England and Arizona. It’s hard to know where they’ll be after that. Indy is 3-1 ATS in the road but they haven’t been on the road since before Halloween. Buffalo is 2-1-1 ATS at home but that one loss was way back in week 1. I like Buffalo coming back home for the first time since Halloween and getting a touchdown here. Trusting Carson Wentz ATS, nah. He’s 38-41 while my man Josh Allen is 33-22 ATS. Bills -7.