Outkick Bets: NFL Cash Making Picks

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Let's get after another Sunday of games and realize there is more happening than Tom Brady trying to beat his old boss. We've got several tasty matchups but some of these lines are wonky beyond wonky. Tread lightly, new friends and let's go win us something nice.

Patriots +7 vs. Buccaneers (-110)

Of course I am starting with the massive story. I know in my brain which team is better. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are superior to the Patriots in almost every way. So why am I on the Patriots? It's this dang ol' number. Why hasn't it moved? If we believe the reporting that the sports books are holding on to 80%+ liability on the Buccaneers -7, why haven't they adjusted to try and balance some of that out? What am I missing? It stinks if you ask me and I won't let my sweet, lil' brain get duped here because I think we might be getting setup. It's why I post it here, as a potential warning. Play whatever you want, but this one smells fresh.

Houston +17.5 @ Buffalo (-118)

Here's another number play BUT we are adding some spot analysis to it. 17.5 is a ridiculous amount of points to lay in the NFL, a league that is allegedly paying everyone to go do football things. It doesn't take rocket science to go see that Buffalo has on their last two games by 35 and 22 points respectively. We don't want to talk about the potential that Buffalo got embarrassed at home and refocused their already good team to play a middling offense in Miami and I am not willing to judge anyone's season by a game against Washington. I am, however, willing to point out this game is before their big Sunday night trip to Kansas City in a week. Let's not pretend these fellas are always lasered in. They will win and likely by double digits, but I am going to play my odds in this one.

Panthers @ Cowboys, UNDER 51.5 (-105)

The story here is the slow, prodding offenses we will see on Sunday. Both teams are in the top 5 in time of possession. Both teams like to control the game with their running attacks first. Carolina's defense is a clinic thus far, ranking 1st in yards allowed per game and 2nd in points, while the Cowboys has been a little more up and down but shown brilliant flashes. If nothing else, they are leaps better than the worst defense in franchise history, which was 2020's crew. The rub here is if we can believe that the Cowboys' offense will be explosive enough to get us over that total. How can we get to a 31-24 type game? I just don't see it. Carolina will reduce Dallas' chances to have the ball by using their methodical offense DESPITE not having Christian McCaffery. This isn't a C-Mac thing, it's just good coaching by Matt Rhule recognizing that if they are going to win (and they have) this is their best chance. I love this under and think we are looking at a 24-17 type venture.