The Only Way To Play This Is The Under

Bills vs. Broncos, 4:30 ET

It was quite a nice Wild Card Weekend for me, and I’ve made it a goal to write about every NFL Playoff game this season. As I mentioned in a different article, the intention is to write about each game, and, of course, multiple about the Super Bowl. We’ve already got our matchups as we move into the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, and I was very pleased not just with my bets, but I thought the games were entertaining in the Wild Card round. Now we get the Bills taking on the Broncos to kickstart our Divisional Round betting.

The Bills won, but I won’t say they looked great. Josh Allen was able to get it done on the road, something that he really hasn’t been able to do in the past. Like so many of the other Wild Card games, this one came down to the wire. Entering the fourth quarter, the game was 13-10 in favor of Buffalo. A quick touchdown gave the Jaguars the lead, before the Bills answered. Once again the Jaguars found the back of the endzone, giving them a 24-20 lead. This was where Allen had to prove to everyone that he really is one of the best in the league. Starting with the ball on the 34 yard line, he drove the length of the field in about three minutes to give them the lead. Allen scored on a one-yard touchdown, his second of the game. A Bills interception sealed the fate of the Jaguars, and now Buffalo advances to face the Broncos.

Jan 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs onto the field before the game against the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Broncos are the #1 seed in the AFC, and I think you have to thank the defense for getting them there. Sure, the offense has had some success, and big moments, but this is a team that starts with defense and gets help from the offense, not the other way around. After a bit of a rocky start at 1-2 for the season, the Broncos won 13 of their next 14 games to finish the year with a 14-3 record. The question for this game is going to be about if Bo Nix can keep up with Josh Allen. For the year, Nix completed 63.4% of passes, throwing for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns. Buffalo has a very good passing defense, but the running defense is not quite as good. I think the Broncos prefer to run the ball anyway (though they did throw the ball around 150 more times than they ran it this season). 

I still am not quite a believer in this Broncos team. I really am not sure why. They have all the pieces you could want – a great defense, a strong head coach with a history of winning, a young, talented quarterback, and a distinct home-field advantage. However, I still find myself saying if it is a close game, I want the better quarterback and that is Josh Allen. If you’ve read my other pieces, you know that I said I am taking the Bills to win the AFC. This is precisely why you make bets like that. The Bills are slight favorites at the time of this writing. You can now take the Broncos at plus money and not only cover your bet on the Bills, but get a little bit extra if they do win. For me, I’m not taking a play on the side (I’ll stick with my stance that the Bills win) but I’m going to play the under. The Broncos defense will not let the scoring get out of hand, and I think both teams will run the ball frequently. My main concern is Allen hurt his hand and it didn’t look right most of the second half against the Jaguars. Perhaps the time between games healed it, though. 

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