A 'Sucker Bet' For Oklahoma City Thunder At Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 In 2025 Western Conference Finals

Down 0-2, the Minnesota Timberwolves got off the mat, went outside the ring, grabbed a barbed wire-wrapped baseball bat, and bashed it over the Oklahoma City Thunder's skulls Saturday in a 143-101 Game 3 win. Call me a sucker, but that was more "signal" than "noise" because OKC hasn't proven anything and the T-Wolves have just as much talent. 

Granted, the market hasn't adjusted to Minnesota's Game 3 a**-whooping. Oklahoma City is a -3 favorite in Game 4, the same odds as Game 3. All three games have been lopsided, but the Timberwolves are out-scoring the Thunder 111.3-111.0 in this series, and they are splitting the "four factors". 

The Thunder are 3-3 straight up (SU) and 0-6 against the spread (ATS) on the road in these playoffs, while the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU and ATS at home. They split the regular-season series. Yet, Minnesota covered the spread three times and was missing C Rudy Gobert, PF Julius Randle, and SG Donte DiVincenzo in three meetings with OKC. 

Also, the T-Wolves live and die by the three, and have been getting better looks from behind the arc in this series. They are averaging nearly five more wide-open threes per game than Oklahoma City (21.7-17.0). Minnesota went 20-for-40 from deep in Game 3, ranked fifth in 3-point attempts per game, and sixth in 3-point percentage this season. 

Minnesota Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert catches a lob against the Oklahoma City Thunder during Game 3 of the 2025 Western Conference Finals. (Photo Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, it wasn't just one guy for the Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 30 points, but Minnesota had seven guys score 10+ points in Game 3. These teams have similar rosters. Both have an alpha surrounded by a bunch of role players with a couple of All-NBA-caliber guys, except the T-Wolves have more veterans. 

That said, since role players typically perform better at home, especially in the playoffs, I have the home team winning the first six games in this series. Then, who knows what happens in Game 7? I'll probably take the points with the Timberwolves. Like a sucker. 

Best Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves +3 (-110) at FanDuel 

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