Offenses Will Be Stymied If Guardians And White Sox Play Today

Guardians vs. White Sox, 7:40 ET

Sometimes you just don’t have a good read on teams. Other times you’re just plain wrong. Of course, the other option is that you do have a good read on them, and they are a squad that you can make money off of. These two teams are interesting to me because we have one team that I felt like would be an afterthought in the division – the Guardians, and a team that I knew would be bad, but not quite this bad, the White Sox. I'll rebet this game if it gets rained out and the matchups are the same. 

The Guardians are off to a fantastic start. For a team that continues to trade away arms and really doesn’t have any superstar players, they continue to find ways to be relevant and win. The team is 10 games above .500, and while this isn’t a division I thought would be overly competitive, they are leading the way against a solid Twins team, and very good Royals and Tigers teams. (I know, I can’t believe I wrote that sentence either.) The Guardians offense has done very well, hitting over .240 for the season and they have over 175 runs already on the year. Now they take on a struggling White Sox team. Cleveland is sending out Ben Lively to the hill for today’s contest. He has allowed one earned run in each of this past three outings. On the season, he has allowed a total of five earned runs over 21.2 innings. To be honest he’s faced significantly better hitting in his four starts than what he has to face today. That’s a good start for his year. Sox hitters are just 2-for-11 against him in their career. 

Apr 17, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde (20) throws the ball in the first inning during game two of a double header against the Kansas City Royals at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Melissa Tamez-USA TODAY Sports

The White Sox are over a month into the season and have fewer than ten wins on the year. In fairness they have played better baseball over the past two weeks than they have during the first four weeks, but that isn’t saying much. For context, they were on pace for roughly 25 wins this season, and now they are on pace for somewhere around 40 wins. If fans want to take anything away from this season it is that there have been some decent enough pitching performances from the team and they can probably trade away some of their pitchers (like today’s starter) for prospects during the season. They are also getting a chance to develop some guys who wouldn’t be playing on a contender. It certainly doesn’t help either that the team is playing without Luis Robert Jr., their best player. Today they are sending out Erick Fedde to the hill. Fedde has been a bright spot for the White Sox. On the season, he has a 3.46 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Again, he will probably be traded at some point this season. He is coming off his worst start of the year – he allowed five earned runs over 4.1 innings. He has been very good against the Guardians, holding them to just three hits over 25 at-bats. 

This is a game that the White Sox could get a victory in if the Guardians aren’t careful. Cleveland is the better team without question, but the White Sox could steal a game. I think the better play here is that we take the under. Fedde has pitched very well, and I’m not convinced that the Guardians are going to score more than four runs. I think that Lively probably will allow a run or two, but that puts us somewhere around six for a full game. I’ll back the under. 

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