NRFI Play For Orioles And Blue Jays

Orioles vs. Blue Jays, 1:07 ET

I went 1-1 yesterday which wasn't a bad result. I was not only wrong about the Pirates vs. Dodgers game, I was really wrong. Upon first glance, I was thinking the Dodgers would crush the Pirates, but then I saw the pitching matchup and I started to flip-flop on the game a bit. I ultimately settled on the under for the day, and James Paxton proceeded to go out and allow seven runs in the second inning alone. It's not a great thing to have happen if you bet the under. Alas, I'll take the 1-1 day and be happy. Today, we will get started early as the Orioles take on the Blue Jays in an afternoon matchup in Toronto.

The Orioles have already taken two of the three games in this series from the Blue Jays. They grabbed the opener, a winner for us as I played the over and they squeaked by, almost entirely due to the Orioles' production. And they took the second game by hammering their opponent, winning 10-1. Now, before they leave, they look to avoid a split and earn the series win. There isn't much bad that you can say about the Baltimore ball club. They are now 39-21 on the season and 18-9 away from home. They can beat you with power or by stringing together hits. They can steal bases, or they can play station-to-station. Their starters are strong, but so is their bullpen. They have a good mix of young stars, and some veteran talent. In reality for being a club that has very little media attention, they are one of the more complete and put together baseball teams in the league and the results are speaking for themselves. To get the third victory in this series against their divisional foes, they have Cade Povich taking the mound. This will be his Major League debut which can always be a bit tricky. Does he come up and have nerves get the best of him, or will he be able to get comfortable and locked in right away? Povich is the 9th ranked prospect in the Orioles minor league system, and has put together a really nice year thus far at Triple-A. 

Apr 23, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday (7) returns to the dugout following the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

While the Orioles go for the series win, that means the Blue Jays are trying to salvage a series sweep. That won't go a long way in terms of the divisional placement, but it certainly doesn't hurt to stop the team in front of them from putting even more distance between them. The sad reality is that this year probably won't feature much intrigue in the AL East. The Yankees are going to make the playoffs and so will the Orioles, the only question is which will make it as the division winner and which will make it as a Wild Card team. The Blue Jays are already 14 games back and three games under .500. The record might not be so bad in other divisions, but in this one, they are likely dead in the water and will have to look at another season of rebuilding. If they choose to trade away some pieces or completely blow up the team, one guy who would provide a nice return is today's starter, Yusei Kikuchi. For the season, Kikuchi has been strong, posting a 3.66 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He's been good at home despite taking four of his five losses there. He has struggled a bit lately as he has allowed five earned runs in both of his past two outings, but he could be set for a rebound. The problem is outside of a game against Detroit (one where he allowed five earned runs) the Blue Jays haven't given him more than three runs of support in any of the other five starts. In fact, all season the Blue Jays have scored three or fewer runs in his starts eight times, compared to giving him four or more runs three times. He did start a game against the Orioles this season, and he went 4.1 innings and allowed just a solo homer while striking out nine hitters. 

I very rarely play this, but I think the best route here is to take the first inning run total under 0.5. I don't love these bets, but hear me out. Yes, the best part of both lineups will be taking the bat, but I think Kikuchi is actually a strong pitcher and can get through the first inning without issue. I also think the Blue Jays haven't hit well to begin games and may take a while to figure out what Povich has in terms of pitches. I'll back the under for the first inning. Let's get in and out for this game quickly with a win. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024