NRFI Bet As Red Sox Take On Cubs

Red Sox vs. Cubs, 2:20 ET

The second half of the MLB season is underway! Thanks to the All-Star Game getting pushed back by a week or whatever it ws previously, we are actually almost 20 games past the halfway mark of the season. That means there are less games remaining than we've played, and more importantly, we have plenty of data to go off of as the season winds down. This has been my worst handicapping season since I started writing for Outkick, but there is still plenty of time to turn it around and it hasn't been a disaster, it just hasn't been consistently great. Let's get it to that point with an insane run that starts today as the Red Sox take on the Cubs.

The Red Sox probably didn't want to see the All-Star Break happen. They finally were on the run that I mentioned they couldn't seem to find this season. The team had all of the pieces, the numbers all looked good, but they spent much of the year floundering around that .500 mark, unable to really separate themselves one way or another. Sometimes you have to hold on for dear life and just hope that you can manage your way into a hot streak. That's what Boston did. They are currently on a 10-game winning streak, and have won 12 of 13, and 13 of their last 14 games. Today they send out a guy who has struggled a bit at times, but since turned it around in Lucas Giolito. Overall, Giolito is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He has been great away from Fenway as well, allowing just eight earned runs over 37 innings, spanning six starts. In July he has been very locked in, allowing just one earned run in two starts, covering almost 14 innings. Cubs hitters have been good, but not great, against him, getting eight hits in 34 tries. 

Apr 30, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) pitches to the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Cubs probably didn't care if the break came or not. They weren't baseball's hottest team, and they certainly weren't the coldest either. This is a team that has done a lot of damage on the scoreboard this year, and by many evaluations, they are ranked as one of the best two or three teams in the league. There are certainly flaws - a lack of depth, extreme concerns about the starting pitching, and even some bullpen concerns with being over used - but those can all be addressed with trades if they search hard enough. Today, the Cubs send out Colin Rea, a pitcher who has been fairly reliable himself for the squad this season. Rea is 7-3 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP this year. July has been his best month. He has also gone almost 14 innings, allowed just five hits and two earned runs. Both came off solo blasts. The biggest problem with Rea is he can throw some stinkers every now and then. He has three starts in the last nine outings where he has allowed at least six earned runs. In the majority of the remainder of his starts he has allowed two or fewer runs. Red Sox hitters are just five for 20 against Rea.

I think the Cubs probably snap the Red Sox winning streak at some point this weekend, but I'm not positive it will be today. The both are good teams, and the numbers line up surprisingly closely. The weather shouldn't be too much of a factor today, and I don't see the wind blowing out at Wrigley. I think this is a good time for us to take the under. While both offenses are good, most of these guys haven't seen live pitching in a week, that can be hard to catch up to early. I'll try my hand at a no run first inning bet at -130. I like the full game at under 8 as well, but will go with just the first inning. 

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