'Catholics Vs. Convicts': Who Has The Betting Edge In Notre Dame At Miami?

While the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes' reputation is much cleaner than in the late '80s, I'm still calling their meeting Sunday with the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the Catholics vs. Convicts, because it sounds cool. Even though these are both top-10 programs entering this season, the betting market gives Notre Dame a sizable edge, considering they are road favorites in Miami. 

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I don't understand why the Hurricanes are ranked 10th in the preseason polls. They lost their superstar quarterback, Cam Ward, to the NFL, as well as their leading rusher and six of their leading wide receivers from last year's team. Miami replaced Ward with QB Carson Beck in the transfer portal, but that's a bigger downgrade than casual college football fans recognize. 

Miami’s offense is ranked first in ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. That’s assuming a lot from Beck, who couldn't hack it in the nation's best program, Georgia. He was the favorite to win the Heisman last year and to be the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Instead, Beck took a step back last year and took his talents to South Beach. 

Notre Dame QB C.J. Carr Is Surrounded by Proven Playmakers

Meanwhile, the Catholics plan for freshman QB C.J. Carr to be a game-manager, whereas the Convicts are relying on Beck to play up to his one-year, $4 million NIL contract. Plus, Carr has more talent around him. Notre Dame's leading rusher from last season, RB Jeremiyah Love, returns, and its three starting wide receivers have an above-average grade at Pro Football Focus. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish RB Jeremiyah Love leaps over Penn State Nittany Lions LB Kobe King in the second half in the 2025 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Photo credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)

Also, there's no reason to think Miami's defense will be any good. The Hurricanes have just two 4-star recruits starting on that side of the ball. They ranked 69th (nice) in points per game allowed last season, 45th in 2023, and 68th in 2022. Former defensive coordinator Al Golden went to the NFL this offseason, but Notre Dame still has a ton of defensive talent. 

Final Word: Betting on History vs. Betting on Hype

Miami's fourth-year head coach, Mario Cristobal, sucks against quality competition. His teams are 1-12 straight up (SU) vs. ranked teams with an -18.2 scoring margin and 6-7 against the spread (ATS). Miami is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. ranked teams under Cristobal. The U didn't play a ranked team last season and still couldn't make the ACC title game. 

The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, are 14-6 SU vs. top-25 teams and 15-4-1 ATS with a +7.6 spread differential under fourth-year head coach Marcus Freeman. Look, sometimes you have to make peace with losing bets. So, if Beck turns out to be worth the money and Cristobal does something he rarely does, I'll let the Convicts steal my money. 

Best Bet: Notre Dame Fighting Irish moneyline (-134, playable up to -150) at FanDuel

• Notre Dame 28, Miami 20

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my college football 2025-26 bets here.