NL East Showdown Should Showcase Offenses

Phillies vs. Braves, 7:20 ET

The NL East has been one of the more intriguing divisions in baseball the past few years. The Braves have won a World Series recently. The Marlins made the playoffs a few times in the past years and are always changing their roster. The Nationals find ways to stay relevant despite losing a lot of their key players. The Mets are a dumpster fire (kind of), but they are playing much better now. The Phillies have been a great team for multiple years, but are not quite getting over the hump lately. Tonight the two juggernauts of the NL East square off. 

The Phillies are hurting right now, but their record won't indicate that at all. For the season, the Phillies are 57-30. They've been good both on the road and at home, finding ways to win games in a multitude of ways. Sure, they have a lot of power, but they can play station-to-station baseball. I like their hitting and their pitching and think there are very few holes on the team. Really, their biggest issue is that they have a bunch of hitters on the injured list right now. They also could use a fourth starter probably, but if they make no moves this season during the trade deadline, they will be fine. Tonight they have Aaron Nola taking the ball for them. He's been very good this season with a 9-4 record, 3.43 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP. When Nola can be that borderline Ace of the staff, the team is just that much better. I am impressed with how well he has pitched this year, because last year it felt like he had too many issues and struggles. Last season he made 15 starts where he allowed at least four earned runs. So far this season, he has just three starts out of 17 where he has allowed at least four earned runs. The bad news for him is that one of those was against the Braves. He allowed six earned runs, and two homers, over 4.1 innings at home. He has been better on the road, but it isn't drastically better. Braves hitters have been good against him in the past with a .265 batting average and 17 home runs against him. Austin Riley would be a good candidate for 2+ hits or total bases for today. 

Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried pitches against the San Diego Padres at Truist Park in Georgia. (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

The Braves certainly won't feel bad for the Phillies and their injuries, because they've lost their reigning MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr., and their Cy Young candidate, Spencer Strider. Even with those issues, the Braves have 10 fewer wins than the Phillies for the year. This is probably their best time to relaunch themselves back into the division race. There is still plenty of baseball to play, but it looked like they were going to only have a shot at the Wild Card, and not the division. Now that there are injuries piling up, this is the time for the Braves to strike and they have a great opportunity to do so with their Ace on the mound to start the series against the Phillies. Max Fried has been great for years, and has been a dominant force in the rotation, but he seems like he is having a great season. Fried is 7-3 for the season with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He has made three consecutive starts where he has allowed just one earned run. He did make one start this season against the Phillies and he allowed three earned runs over 0.2 innings before getting injured. In that span, he allowed two hits and three walks. Overall, Phillies hitters have hit .313 against him in the past, but only 10 of their hits have gone for extra bases. 

There are two very good pitchers on the mound tonight, so I do understand the low total for the game of just 7.5 runs. However, the history would indicate that this game should be a win for the Braves, and it should be an over. I'm not as certain about the Braves winning, but I do feel confident that both teams will contribute to getting the over is this one. I'll back over 7.5 and hope the bats can hit both of these pitchers. 

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