NL Awards Still Somewhat Up-For-Grabs
Every year at the All-Star break for the MLB, the major four sports are shut down. That gives me time to start looking into other things. When I have time on my hands, I just go down rabbit holes and let me tell you, for the past two days, I've been down a rabbit hole on MLB divisions, and player awards. My deep dive is your benefit as I share what I think is a possibility for baseball awards in the National League.
Over in the American League, there is only one award that is pretty much a lock - the American League MVP is going to Shohei Ohtani. Over in the National League, I would argue that it is essentially the same thing. He may not get as much publicity, but Ronald Acuna Jr. has this award to lose. His first half was phenomenal and if it wasn't for Ohtani, he probably would get more attention with how great his season has been. Could someone beat him? Sure, but he already has 21 home runs and 41 stolen bases to go along with his .331 average. The one guy that I think you should take a flyer on in the National League is Luis Arraez. Why? Well, if he somehow, someway, can find a way to get to .400 for the season, I don't think any other accomplishment will be recognized over that. Batting .400 is very unlikely, but he is at .383 for the season so he has the potential and put himself in a good position. At +3500 there is some good value on this. There is an any other player at +230 on DraftKings so you could get anyone but Acuna for a bit of value.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has the award locked up for now, but can anyone break the lock? (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Cy Young race is one that I think has more potential for you to grab a long shot. The pair of Cubs hurlers are both +1700 (Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele), and either of them are realistic shots to win the award. Steele would probably be my lean at this point as he boasts a 2.56 ERA right now, only behind Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw isn't someone I depend on because of the likelihood of injury. Steele though has just 91.1 innings. His 3.0 WAR is solid and he also has 11 quality starts in 16 overall starts. Stroman offers just as much value and has more quality starts, a higher WAR but a higher ERA as well. He also could be traded so that's part of the reason I don't want to go for him. The favorites - Zac Gallen and Spencer Strider have a case to be made for them as well. Gallen is 11-3 with a 3.04 ERA and has shown stretches where he can not be scored on. I like him, but not at +200. Strider is a strikeout machine, but he also has a 3.44 ERA and just a 2.1 WAR. The longshot I kind of like here is Joe Musgrove. He doesn't quite have all the innings you need - just 79.1, but he is 8-2 with a 3.29 ERA and has eight quality starts on the year. I think he could come from behind here and win at +10000.
The Rookie of the Year race is a two horse race between Corbin Carroll, who has been mashing all season, and Elly De La Cruz who has been electrifying since he was called up. The knock on De La Cruz is that he only has played 30 games so far. At some point pitching will adjust and you need to see if he is more than just a flash in the pan. We've seen many players be exciting for a short stretch, but those that can keep it going are the ones we need to try to win with. Carroll has proven he can keep it rolling, but De La Cruz could steal it with the highlight plays. Carroll has had a great season .289 average, 18 homers, and 26 stolen bases. He's a baller and the -300 price tag is justified on him. I don't see anyone else taking the award away from him other than De La Cruz, so I can't recommend anyone without saying you are likely just throwing your money away. You could bet on the field outside of Carroll at +250 which is the same price as De La Cruz currently, so it makes more sense to take that bet.
Baseball is such a long sport that a first half can be almost irrelevant as a lot of writers look at strong second halves and vote just on that. The playoff race can also influence the decisions, that might play in favor of both Carroll and De La Cruz. I still think that the Cy Young award is the one most worth putting some cash on, but it is the most open.
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