Minnesota Vikings At Chicago Bears MNF Breakdown: Where the Smart Money Belongs

Week 1's NFL Monday Night Football game features two NFC North teams that the market is unsure about, as the Minnesota Vikings visit the Chicago Bears. Minnesota has one of the best rosters in the league, but who knows how good first-year starter QB J.J. McCarthy will be? The Bears have a solid roster, too, but went 5-12 last year and replaced their entire coaching staff. 

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Caleb Williams threw for 531 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in his two games vs. the Vikings last year, and Chicago head coach Ben Johnson lit up Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores as the Detroit Lions' offensive coordinator in 2023-24. Detroit scored 31 points vs. Minnesota in both meetings last season and 30 points in both meetings two years ago. 

Granted, the Lions were a well-oiled machine under head coach Dan Campbell. Yet, Johnson is an offensive guru who took the Bears’ job to coach Caleb, the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. And while I like Detroit QB Jared Goff and all, Williams has a higher ceiling. Caleb is one of the better athletes playing quarterback and has way more arm talent than Goff. 

His pocket awareness is god-awful, but that can improve with experience and playing in Johnson’s quarterback-friendly system. Furthermore, Williams has weapons to work with, and Flores is one of the most blitz-heavy defensive playcallers in the league, which obviously leaves fewer defenders in pass coverage. 

Chicago WR D.J. Moore has four 1,000-yard receiving seasons in seven years in the NFL, and WR Rome Odunze was the ninth pick in last year's draft. Moore would have made a Pro Bowl team if he had played with a decent quarterback in his career. I still believe in Odunze’s talent despite a mediocre rookie season (54 catches for 734 receiving yards and three TDs). 

Prediction: Bears 26, Vikings 19 

Plus, the Bears tried to fix their garbage offensive line this offseason by signing C Drew Dalman, LG Joe Thuney, and RG Jonah Jackson. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Dalman was the fourth-best center in the league last season. Thuney is a two-time All-Pro and four-time Super Bowl champion. Jackson has been graded as an above-average guard by PFF in three of his five NFL seasons.

So, if their presumably improved offensive line gives Williams time to throw, he will find Moore, Odunze, RB D'Andre Swift out of the backfield, or the Bears' intriguing rookie pass-catchers, No. 10 overall pick TE Colston Loveland, and WR Luther Burden, who was a five-star recruit out of high school. 

Chicago Bears WR D.J. Moore scores a two-point conversion vs. the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field. (Photo Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images)

Meanwhile, Minnesota traded former QB Sam Darnold this offseason, despite his best season in 2024-25, and gave the keys to its offense to McCarthy. Even though Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the best offensive minds and McCarthy is in good hands, Minnesota’s offense will most likely take a step back this season. At least initially. 

Also, the Bears have Pro Bowl-caliber talent on all three levels of their defense, and Johnson hired Dennis Allen as his DC. Allen was a terrible head coach, but an elite coordinator. His defenses were top-10 in points allowed for four consecutive seasons from 2020-23 as the New Orleans Saints' DC and head coach. 

Ultimately, Chicago’s new offensive schemes plus its existing talent, combined with McCarthy making his first start on Monday Night Football in a division game, equals value on the Bears as a slight home ‘dog. 

Best Bet: Chicago Bears +1.5 (-108, down to -1.5) at DraftKings

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.