NFL Draft 2024 Hype: J.J. McCarthy's Odds To Go 2nd Jumped Significantly Monday
Despite former USC Trojans QB Caleb Williams being a "lock" to be taken 1st by the Chicago Bears on Thursday, former Michigan Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy is the most talked about prospect in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. Because of this, McCarthy's odds of being selected 2nd in the draft went from +2000 this past weekend to as low as +800 at DraftKings.
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Currently, the Washington Commanders have the No. 2 overall pick in this week's NFL draft. LSU Tigers QB, and 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels is still the favorite at DraftKings to be picked 2nd (-160). North Carolina Tar Heels QB Drake Maye is right behind Daniels (+150). Perhaps NFL GMs are playing 4D chess and trying to get a team to overpay in a trade-up for the 2nd pick.
Michigan Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy holds the trophy as he celebrates winning the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship vs. the Washington Huskies at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
When he declared for the draft after winning the 2024 national championship, McCarthy was mocked for going outside the top 10 by NFL draft analysts. But, there's been momentum for McCarthy to be a top-five pick for weeks. OutKick NFL insider Armando Salguero has the New England Patriots taking McCarthy with the 3rd pick. Other NFL draft analysts predict a team will trade into the top-5 to take McCarthy.
That said, the best bet for "McCarthy's Draft Position" is for him to go UNDER 5.5 (-150), which is available at DraftKings as of 12:30 p.m. ET Monday. The implied win probability of -150 odds is 60.0%. J.J. would go inside the top five at least 67% of the time if the 2024 NFL Draft were simulated a million times. The first three teams in the 2024 NFL Draft need quarterbacks.
READ: How The Heck Did J.J. McCarthy Become A Potential Top 5 Pick?
Even if McCarthy isn't drafted in the top three, several other teams need QBs, including the New York Giants, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, and Las Vegas Raiders. Since the Arizona Cardinals have the 4th pick and the Los Angeles Chargers are 5th, and both have franchise QBs already with a bunch of holes to fill, either could trade back in the draft.
Michigan Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy drops back to pass against the Washington Huskies in the 2024 College Football Playoff title game at NRG Stadium. (Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)
With that in mind, I don't hate a sprinkle on "J.J. McCarthy - To Be Selected by Which Team in the 2024 NFL Draft": New York Giants (+275) at DraftKings. NFL insider Pete Schrager predicted the Giants would trade with the Cardinals for the 4th pick and draft McCarthy in his 2024 NFL mock draft 1.0. Personally, as a Giants fan, I'm down for this move.
I'm sick of the "Giants QB Daniel Jones experience." Jones is always hurt and has played one good season since New York took him 6th overall in 2019. McCarthy was a two-year starter in a pro-style system at Michigan. J.J.'s numbers improved along the way and he was ESPN's 2nd-ranked QB prospect coming out of high school in 2021.
McCarthy has the speed and elusiveness to evade NFL pass rushers and the arm strength to drive the ball down the field. To be clear, I'm not saying McCarthy is the same type of scrambler as Cardinals QB Kyler Murray or Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. However, he's not a complete statue back there either.
Take what I feel, what NFL draft experts say, and how betting markets move with a grain of salt. Last year, Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis's pre-draft odds jumped after a Reddit user said Levis's family told them he was going 1st. There's a lot of noise and BS in the draft process. Yet, where there's smoke, there is usually fire. And McCarthy is the hottest prospect ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.
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