NFL Betting Picks For Week 5 From Analyst Hitting 61% This Season Includes Bengals, Packers & Low Scoring In London

Last year, I hit 62% of my NFL betting picks in the regular season and we're off to a good start this year. I began the season right at the .500 mark, going 2-2 in both Week 1 and Week 2. But in Week 3, I posted my first winning week (3-2) and followed that up with a nice 4-1 mark in Week 4. I'll quickly recap that and then move on to the Week 5 NFL betting picks...

Week 4 NFL Betting Picks (4-1)

Chicago Bears (+3.5) over Denver Broncos ✅

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) over Indianapolis Colts ✅

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills OVER 53.5 ✅

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints UNDER 40.5 points ✅

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants OVER 47 points ❌

Never count your money while you're at the table! That's a fun saying in poker. The same applies to sports betting. I felt INCREDIBLE about our spread picks for about two hours. Both the Bears and Rams jumped out to massive leads. Both of them blew those leads, but still managed to cover. We'll take it. Plus, the analysis felt right. Despite the comebacks, we were on the right side on both.

Our Sunday totals didn't provide as much drama. The Dolphins and Bills easily eclipsed the OVER, as expected. Books are going to adjust to the Dolphins and eventually there will be value on betting their UNDER. But not yet. Saints/Bucs provided a slight sweat, but the game was a rock fight, as anticipated.

We entered Monday Night Football needing the Seahawks and Giants to pile up points to complete the perfect week and then Daniel Jones happened. Or, the Giants offensive line happened. Whatever. I wrote last week that if New York couldn't score on Seattle's defense I would officially be out on them. Well, consider me out.

Week 5 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over Arizona Cardinals

I swear this is the last time that I'm going to trust Cincinnati if they screw me over again. But this point spread is flat-out criminal. The preseason lookahead line for this game was Bengals -7.5. As of last week, the line was -7. Yes, Cincinnati looks atrocious. But adjusting this line down four points is way too much.

The Arizona Cardinals, to their credit, have been a frisky team this year. They're actually 3-1 against-the-spread with their first loss coming last week against the San Francisco 49ers. No shame in that. But the Bengals biggest weakness right now is their offensive line play combined with Joe Burrow's calf injury rendering him virtually immobile. Not a good combination.

However, the Arizona Cardinals struggled badly upfront. They have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL and their rush defense isn't great, either.

Even a hobbled Joe Burrow is miles ahead of Josh Dobbs, even though Dobbs has played fairly well through four games. I don't expect Arizona's home-field advantage to play a huge role, and the Bengals -- even right now -- are still at least a touchdown better than the Cardinals.

I don't buy that Cincinnati is as bad as they've looked or that Arizona is as good as they've looked. Plus, this game is just too important to Cincinnati, who cannot afford to drop to 1-4. Hold your breath and lock in the Bengals with NFL betting pick #1.

Green Bay Packers (-1) over Las Vegas Raiders

The last time we saw the Green Bay Packers, they looked terrible on Thursday Night Football against the Detroit Lions. I'm looking to fade that performance and buy Green Bay long-term. They are one disastrous ending (against Atlanta) from being 3-1. They boast one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, which has allowed Jordan Love to play well enough to win.

Plus, Green Bay continues to get healthier. Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are back but both played limited snaps against Detroit. Now, Green Bay comes off a pseudo-bye week. They go from a Thursday Night Football game to a Monday Night Football contest. Oh, and they have their actual bye week after this game. The schedule-makers clearly did Green Bay some big-time favors this year, at least early.

Jordan Love's weapons are getting healthier and they should be bigger favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, making them a value play for an NFL betting pick in Week 5 on Monday Night Football. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

For a team trying to get healthy, a pseudo-bye into an actual bye provides a great opportunity. No need to limit the banged-up players with an entire week off after this one. On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo is still in concussion protocol. He should start, but has missed over a week of practice. We'll see how many reps he gets this week.

Even with Garoppolo, the only win on the Raiders record is over Denver. That ... doesn't look all that impressive right now. The Bills destroyed them. Then, they lost to Pittsburgh, another team struggling early this season. The Chargers jumped out a lead before letting the Raiders back in, but the point is simply that Green Bay is a much better team.

Take the better team only giving up one point for NFL betting pick #2.

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London) UNDER 48.5 points

This line is simply too high. The Buffalo Bills dismantled the Miami Dolphins defense, but much of that is a product of how Miami chooses to play games. They want to engage in shootouts because few teams can match their ability to move and-and-down the field with ease. Buffalo can.

But they don't need to do that in this game. Plus, the Jaguars defense is statistically better than any defense the Bills have played this season and that includes the New York Jets. Yes, Buffalo is averaging nearly 40 points per game over its last three, but all have come against very below-average defenses.

The Buffalo defense harassed Tua Tagovailoa in Week 4 and should do the same against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, making the UNDER a great play in London for an NFL betting pick. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

On the other side, Jacksonville's offense is really struggling. Oh, and the Bills defense is actually really good. They just held Miami to 20 points. And, London games tend to be lower scoring. Each of the past four Jacksonville games played in the UK went UNDER the total.

The Jaguars haven't been able to solve any defense in the past three weeks. Kansas City held them under 10 points. The Texans kept them under 20. The Falcons did, too, with their total score buoyed by a defensive touchdown.

I think both quarterbacks protect the football and lean on their run games in a closely-contested, low scoring. Lock in the London UNDER with NFL betting pick #3.

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings UNDER 52.5 points

This reeks of one of those lines that only exists because of the names of the teams. People see the Chiefs and Vikings and think "points." But, that's not really the case with either team this season. The Chiefs hung 41 on the Chicago Bears, but Chicago's defense is one of the worst in the league. The Vikings did score 28 against the Eagles, but much of that came from being down big.

This game is going to be closer than most people think. Not Vegas, though, which has the Chiefs as just 4-point favorites. That Eagles game was the only one Minnesota has played this season where the total went over 52 points. The Chiefs have 0 such games. Check this out, too: the last five Chiefs games with a total of 50+ points all went UNDER the total.

These teams are a combined 3-5 O-U this season and one of the Chiefs overs came against the Jets last week where the total was just 41.5 points. This is one of those plays that could go horribly wrong and quickly. But something is screaming in my head that this line is just way off and based on perception more than reality. Back the UNDER with NFL betting pick #4.