Best Bets, Prop Picks As Patriots Take On Beat-Up Broncos In AFC Championship

One of the lamest title games (on paper) in recent memory kicks off NFL championship Sunday when the New England Patriots play the Bo Nix-less Denver Broncos in the 2026 AFC Championship. No one is sure how it happened, but Nix got hurt on Denver's final drive in a 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills last week in the divisional round. 

New England blasted the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans in its first two playoff games. Both LAC and Houston had garbage offensive lines, which matched the theme of the Patriots' path to the AFC title game: Their soft-a** schedule. Yet, you can't control who you play, and New England has played like a Super Bowl contender since October.  

As a result of Nix's injury, the Patriots opened as -5.5 favorites in Mile High, and they are -4.5 at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon. The betting splits say most of the action is on New England, but the line movement suggests the sharp money is on the Broncos. Also, I'm hearing most sports betting content creators make a case for Denver. 

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Because NFL spreads are the tightest markets at the sportsbooks, and even more so in the playoffs, I'm downsizing my bets on the AFC title game. However, since there are only three more games left in the season and I hit nearly 60% of my bets during the NFL regular season, I'm taking a stance on a side and betting a few props in the Patriots-Broncos. 

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, AFC Championship Bet Slip 

• Denver Broncos +4.5 (-108), down to +3.5, vs. New England Patriots via DraftKings, risking 0.54 units (u).
• New England Patriots Team Total UNDER 23.5 (-105) via DraftKings, risking 0.53u.
• Broncos TE Evan Engram OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110) via BetMGM, risking 0.28u.
• Patriots WR Stefon Diggs UNDER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-112) via DraftKings, risking 0.28.
• Broncos DT Zach Allen OVER 0.25 sacks (+160) via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 0.25u.
• Patriots QB Drake Maye UNDER 30.5 rushing yards (-114) via FanDuel, risking 0.29u.

Denver +4.5 

The lookahead line for this game was Denver -1.5, which basically tells you the market thinks Nix is worth about 6.5 points to the spread once the number flips through zero. Sure, crossing zero changes how the move "feels," but the point still stands: that’s a massive adjustment.

And honestly? Nix isn’t that valuable. He’s probably closer to 3.5–4.0 points better than an average NFL quarterback. People, including me, have been criticizing Nix all season for being kind of mediocre. 

Buffalo Bills DE Greg Rousseau pressures Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix during the 2025 AFC Divisional Round. (Photo credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)

Yes, he has an NFL-best seven game-winning drives and has delivered a few legitimately impressive performances. But he’s also had some ugly outings, like when Denver’s offense managed 10 points vs. the Las Vegas Raiders, 13 points vs. the Jets, and 19 points vs. the Chargers in Week 18 when LAC was resting most starters. 

Why the Broncos can still hang around without Nix

Here’s the bigger point: Sean Payton is one of the sharpest offensive minds in the NFL, and he’s had two full seasons with backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this system. Payton has had all week to coach him up, trim the playbook, and build a game plan that avoids self-inflicted disasters.

If Denver’s defense plays up to its standard, the Broncos should be able to cover +4.5 as long as they can scrape together 17+ points. In other words? Three scoring drives. That’s it.

Drake Maye hasn’t looked ready for the moment

On the other side, Patriots second-team All-Pro QB Drake Maye has looked shaky in his first postseason. In the wild-card round vs. the Chargers, Maye had two turnovers (one interception and one fumble), and New England scored just 16 points. 

Then last week against Houston, it got even worse. Maye had a 20.8 QBR, by far his lowest of the season, thanks to three turnovers, including one interception and two fumbles. That’s not a small blip. That’s a quarterback pressing, and it matters against a defense as good as Denver’s.

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Patriots Team Total UNDER 23.5 points

Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the efficiency numbers back it up: first in defensive success rate, third in points per play, second in explosive play rate allowed, and second in red-zone touchdown rate allowed. Meanwhile, New England’s offense has struggled to finish drives, ranking 22nd in red-zone touchdown rate. 

Pace matters for totals, too, and this matchup sets up for fewer possessions: New England is fifth in time of possession, and Denver is eighth in time of possession. Plus, with Bo Nix out, Denver should be especially committed to shortening the game. The Broncos don’t want this turning into a "score-for-score" situation.

Bottom line: the Under is live if Denver dictates tempo and forces New England to execute in the red zone.

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Denver DT Zach Allen OVER 0.25 sacks

Denver EDGE Nik Bonitto had a team-high 14.0 sacks, but Allen was the bigger disruptor on that front. Allen is a first-team All-Pro, and according to Pro Football Focus, he had 38 quarterback hits, 13 more than the next closest guy (Los Angeles Rams EDGE Jared Verse).

Moreover, this matchup is perfect because Maye takes too many sacks. He had 47 sacks in the regular season (fourth-most in the NFL). Maye was sacked five times by the Chargers last week. At +152, you’re not asking Allen to dominate. You’re asking for half a sack.

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Broncos TE Evan Engram OVER 19.5 receiving yards

Tight ends are a quarterback’s security blanket: Bigger body, easier throws, quick outlets, and the ability to fall forward after contact. Engram has 21+ receiving yards in 11 of 17 games this season (regular season and the playoffs). 

Yes, he only had one catch for seven yards last week, but the usage profile still supports a bounce-back. He’s the third-most targeted pass-catcher in Denver’s offense, and the two wideouts ahead of him (Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin) aren’t exactly built to turn short throws into explosives.

Engram also creates more after the catch. He averages 6.0 yards after completion per reception, whereas Franklin averages 4.3 yards and Sutton, 3.0. 

If Franklin and WR Pat Bryant aren't 100% (both were limited in practice Wednesday), Engram’s target share could creep up. This is a low bar. One seam, one broken tackle, or a couple of checkdowns get it done.

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New England QB Drake Maye UNDER 30.5 rushing yards

Denver has mostly contained opposing quarterbacks on the ground. Quarterbacks have hit 31+ rushing yards in only five of Denver’s 18 games (regular season and playoffs). Two of those "Overs" were exactly 31. Maye has gone over 30.5 in 7 of 19 games, and his two playoff games were wildly different: 66 rushing yards and 10 rushing yards. 

The Houston Texans force a fumble from New England Patriots QB Drake Maye in the AFC Divisional Round. (Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images)

Also worth noting: the Patriots are -4.5 favorites, which opens the door for late victory-formation kneel downs, and those can steal a few rushing yards at the end. If Maye’s forced to win from the pocket and Denver keeps him from freelancing, this Under is in a solid spot.

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Patriots WR Stefon Diggs UNDER 47.5 receiving yards

Diggs played on just 54.7% of offensive snaps during the regular season and 58.9% in the two playoff games. He’s cleared 47.5 yards in just 7 of 19 games, and neither postseason game has been one of them.

Now add the matchup: Denver has one of the best secondaries in the league and ranks second in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing wide receivers. If Diggs isn’t playing every snap, and Maye is struggling with turnovers and sacks, this is the type of game where the "name value" of the prop can outpace reality.

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