Nebraska Will Break The Iowa Glass Slipper

Iowa vs. Nebraska, 7:30 ET

I didn't have the best NCAA Tournament opening weekend. I'm not saying it was terrible, but it was a losing weekend. I usually do pretty well during the first weekend of the Tournament. My bracket isn't busted, but I likely won't win anything, so I'm pretty much just trying to get money back from these games. There has been a lot of talk about Cinderella teams and if the Tournament is still exciting, and honestly, I'm over that discussion. Yes, the Tournament is still awesome. I want to see good basketball, not just upsets. We should get good basketball between Iowa and Nebraska. 

While everyone is complaining that we have too many high seeds advancing, we still get good teams advancing. Iowa may be a nine seed, and they are not quite a Cinderella, but still an underdog. They have looked incredible in these last two games and are fighting for their lives. For the season, the team is 23-12. They finished 10-10 in the Big Ten, and after beating Maryland, they lost the game to Ohio State, knocking them out of the conference tournament. Getting to the Sweet 16 hasn't been easy, they beat Clemson in their first game, winning 67-61. That was a game that probably ended closer than it needed two. The Hawkeyes were up by 14 at one point, and they led for 98% of the game according to the Team Stats. The next game was even more difficult as they had to face Florida, the reigning National Champions. They won that game by one after a three-pointer with just seconds remaining. Florida made a poor decision, and they didn't even get a shot off. Game over. Iowa, winning both games, still hasn't shot over 30% from deep. 

IOWA CITY, IA - FEBRUARY 17: Forward Cooper Koch #8 of the Iowa Hawkeyes celebrates with fans after the match-up against the Nebraska Cornhuskers on February 17, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, in Iowa City, Iowa.  (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

Nebraska has put up a great campaign, one that almost no one expected. They started the year 20-0 and then the struggles started happening. They did have some nice wins in that 20-game winning streak. They beat Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, and Kansas State, the remainder of those games were against pretty easy competition, though. They went just 6-6 over their final 12 games including their Big 10 Tournament loss to Purdue. Their losses were to Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, UCLA, and Purdue again. In their first game, they dominated Troy, beating them by almost 30. It was a blitz and they killed them. They shot 36% from deep and really didn't struggle after they got going about 10 minutes into the game. In the next game they barely beat Vanderbilt.  The fact that this game was close is a bit wild because Nebraska shot 47% from deep. They never fully pulled away from Vanderbilt, mostly because they shot almost 20 fewer threes than their opponent. 

This is the third game between the two teams this season. Iowa and Nebraska have split the first two with both teams winning their home games. It wasn't like either team was all that far from the other. In the first game, Iowa won 57-52. In the second, Nebraska won in overtime by nine. I think this game will be tight, but I will take Nebraska. The Cornhuskers won the points in the paint in both games, and three-point shooting will tend to favor Nebraska. The Hawkeyes have proved they can play with anyone, but I think Nebraska knocks them out. Give me them on the moneyline. 

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