NCAAF Early Week 12 Best Bets

Week 12 is upon us for college football and we are ready for it with a few plays for the early games. We’ve already seen some good MACtion this week, and I expect some of these Thursday/Friday games to be enjoyable as well. Let’s jump right to it.

Louisville at Duke

Duke has been brutal this year on the football field. Their defense is allowing 36 points per game and doesn’t appear to have any hope of stopping anyone soon. Louisville’s offense isn’t exactly what I would call “explosive” but I can see them racking up yardage against the Duke defense – a defense that has allowed at least 45 points for opponents over the last four games. One thing that Duke does pretty well is run the ball. That’s one of the bigger strengths of a middle-of-the-pack Louisville defense. I’m going to play the Cardinals to cover the spread on this game as they should win by three touchdowns. The only way to play this one is Louisville -20.5 at -110. If they win, they may lock up a bowl game, so there is extra motivation.

San Diego State at UNLV

San Diego State, ranked 19th in the country, travels to take on a UNLV team that has only gotten two wins over this season. The line has been moving in favor of UNLV though. Is it because they are the home team? Probably not. In my opinion, I think it has more to do with San Diego State not being able to consistently pass effectively. Plus, looking at the opponents that both teams have faced, San Diego State won most of the games, but they were pretty close games. UNLV is also coming off of two consecutive victories where they looked very good. Even with their improved play recently, San Diego State is clearly the better team. I think now that the spread has shortened up a bit, I’m going to take the Aztecs to cover 10.5 at -114. I would love to get 10, or 9.5, but that might not happen. This is one of the few times I’d consider buying a half-point.

Arizona at Washington State

Arizona is not really known for scoring a ton of points this season. On the year, they average just 17 points per game. Their defense isn’t great enough to stop anyone either. On the Washington State side, if you combine their point total allowed and scored, you get to the 52 points that the books have posted the line at. The question is, can Arizona score the points needed to get the over? Washington State has gone over 52 points in four of their last five games. The BYU game only fell to 40. Perhaps a decent comparison is to Stanford, a team that averages about 21 points per game, still more than Arizona, but they played at Washington State and scored 31 points. I just don’t see the points coming from Arizona though. I’ll cautiously play the under 52.5 at -110.