NBA Wednesday 'Locks' Include Spurs Snapping Losing Skid Vs. Lakers
I took an absolutely brutal loss in the NBA Tuesday. The Golden State Warriors backdoor covered as +3.5 underdogs in a 119-116 loss at the Phoenix Suns with a meaningless layup as time expired. Even worse, the Suns had a 13-point lead with 3:56 remaining before botching the cover.
On top of that, I got horrible injury-luck in the Lakers-Mavericks and Warriors-Suns games. Whatever. This is what comes to the territory if you're going to bet the NBA daily. There's nothing I can do except get it back with these ...
Best Bets for NBA Wednesday
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors (-115), 7:30 p.m. ET
I'm fading the Hawks Wednesday because they cannot stop a nosebleed and are built around Trae Young who is one of my least favorite NBA players. Atlanta is 28th in defensive rating and have the 2nd-worst defensive shot quality, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Furthermore, the Raptors are 4-1 straight up (SU) vs. bottom-10 defenses. They have a +10.1 net rating in non-garbage time and a +6.5 spread differential in those games, according to CTG.
Atlanta Hawks PG Trae Young shoots a runner over Raptors wing Pascal Siakam at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)
Also, the Raptors do a good job defending what the Hawks like to do. Atlanta is 9th in FT/FGA rate and lead the NBA in fastbreak frequency. Well, Toronto is 5th in defensive FT/FGA rate and 10th in fastbreak defensive efficiency, per CTG.
The Hawks on the other hand do a poor job stopping what the Raptors like to do. Both teams like to crash the glass but Atlanta is 29th in points allowed per 100 misses, per CTG. Toronto is 7th in paint points per game (PPG) and the Hawks allow the 4th-worst paint PPG.
My prediction: Raptors 117, Hawks 113
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets (-7.5), 8 p.m. ET
The Rockets are a juggernaut at home. They are 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS) with a +12.7 scoring margin. Houston stomped Memphis 111-91 at home last month and I don't see why that'll be any different Wednesday.
Houston is 2nd in defensive rating and the Grizzlies are 1-5 SU vs. top-10 defenses with a -15.3 net rating and a -8.1 spread differential, per CTG. The Rockets are allowing just 97.3 PPG at home this season.
Rockets PG Fred VanVleet in action vs. the Memphis Grizzlies at Toyota Center in Houston. (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Plus, Basketball Reference has a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule. Houston has a +4.0 SRS and Memphis has a -7.5 SRS. When you add in a +2.5 boost for home-court, the Rockets could easily be double-digit favorites in this game.
Finally, we are getting a cheap number for Houston because of Memphis's recent performance. The Grizzlies are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last six games.
However, Memphis's three wins during this stretch are against a god-awful Detroit Pistons, a Luka Doncic-less Dallas Mavericks, and at home vs. the Utah Jazz who are a terrible road team.
My prediction: Rockets 113, Grizzlies 102
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (+3.5), 8 p.m. ET
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are always on the Lakers' injury report and eventually they'll be given an off-night. And this is a "sandwich spot" for the Lakers. They won the NBA In-Season Tournament this past weekend.
The Lakers played a thrilling, fast-paced shootout with the Dallas Mavericks Tuesday. This is the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Lakers who play the Spurs again Friday on primetime. Since the NBA wants stars to play in primetime games, it makes sense for the Lakers to give LeBron and AD Wednesday off.
Perhaps I'm trying to "catch a falling knife" but something has to explain why the Spurs are only +3 underdogs vs. a red-hot Lakers team despite San Antonio's current 17-game losing skid. If it's not the possible absences of LeBron and AD maybe it's just the "Spurs are due".
Los Angeles Lakers' LeBron James and Anthony Davis celebrate after winning the NBA In-Season Tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Another reason for the Lakers being just -3 favorites is how poorly they play on the road. The Lakers are 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS in away games with a -7.8 scoring margin. Their defense allows just 105.1 PPG in LA compared to 120.1 PPG on the road.
Granted, the Spurs are bad regardless of the venue. Yet, their 3-point shooting improves from 31.2% on the road to 35.8% in San Antonio. Lastly, even if LeBron and AD play, this is a way bigger game for the Spurs than the Lakers.