White-Hot NBA Bettor Geoff Clark Gives Out Two Bets For Tuesday
Two of my NBA bets Monday were essentially locks with the Milwaukee Bucks blasting the Denver Nuggets 112-95 and Golden State coasting past the Utah Jazz 129-107. But, one of the worst calls of the season cost me a perfect 3-0 night.
The New York Knicks lost outright 105-103 as -2.5 road favorites to the Houston Rockets but how it happened was atrocious. NYK rallied from a double-digit deficit to tie the score 103-103 on a PG Jalen Brunson mid-range jumper with 00:06 left.
Inexplicably, the refs called a foul on Brunson for an aggressive close-out on a 3-point heave as time expired. Post-game, crew chief Ed Malloy copped to the error by the refs and rightfully admitted that no foul occurred. However, the damage was done and my bankroll took a hit.
Either way, I'm seeing it well and have a 15-6 record since Feb. 5 with a +30.7% return on investment and a profit of +6.7 units (u). Instead of crying about my tough beat Monday, I will get it back with a couple of …
NBA Tuesday ‘Locks’
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
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Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets (+9), 7:30 p.m. ET
The Celtics have been playing with their food recently. They are 5-1 straight up (SU) over the past two weeks, but just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) with a -4.3 ATS margin, ranking 23rd in the NBA, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Granted, Brooklyn hasn't been good lately either. The Nets are 2-4 SU and against the spread (ATS) in the last two weeks. They just snapped a 3-game losing streak by beating the lowly San Antonio Spurs 123-103 Saturday.
That said, Brooklyn has the length and athleticism to contest Boston's 3-point barrage. Now that Nets PG Ben Simmons is back in the lineup, Brooklyn has four switchable defenders in its starting 5 that can guard ball handlers and forwards.
(Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)
The Celtics might be easier to defend Tuesday because Kristaps Porzingis is "questionable". Porzingis left Boston's 110-106 win over the Miami Heat Sunday with a back injury and didn't return. I could see the Celtics resting Porzingis until after the All-Star break this weekend.
Furthermore, Boston's 3-point percentage drops from 39.1% at home to 36.3% on the road. Brooklyn's defensive 3-point rate goes from 39.9% on the road to 36.5% at home.
Finally, both teams like to chuck threes. Yet, over the last six games, the Nets are 8th in defensive wide-open 3-point attempt rate and the Celtics are 28th. If Brooklyn gets good looks from deep Tuesday, it can win this game outright.
BET 1.12u on the Nets +9 (-112) at FanDuel and sprinkle 0.25u on Brooklyn's moneyline (+310).
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic (+2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a tough spot for OKC who is playing its 3rd game in four nights Tuesday. After losing 146-111 at the Dallas Mavericks Saturday, the Thunder beat the Sacramento Kings 127-113 at home Super Bowl Sunday.
Oklahoma City beat Orlando 112-100 at home as -11.5 favorites Jan. 13th. But, the Magic were significantly undermanned. They were missing starting PG Markelle Fultz, C Wendell Carter Jr., and SF Franz Wagner.
Also, Orlando plays much better at home. For instance, the Magic are 17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS in their home gym while scoring 5.4 more points per game (PPG) and allowing 4.3 fewer PPG. Over the past two weeks, Orlando is 5-1 SU and ATS.
(Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Magic's size gives them a huge edge over the Thunder given how both teams play. Orlando is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA and OKC is 29th in 2nd-chance PPG allowed.
Lastly, the Magic have the 2nd-best shot quality in the NBA, per CTG, and attempt the highest rate of field goals at the rim. Their aggressiveness gets them to the charity stripe at the 3rd-best rate in the Association. While the Thunder are 23rd in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
BET 1.1u on the Magic +2.5 (-110) at Caesars. Orlando is playable down to a pick 'em.
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