3 NBA Best Bets Thursday From A Red-Hot Handicapper
My 7-bet NBA winning streak came to an end with my final look on Wednesday's card. The Los Angeles Clippers, a team I banned last season for consistently choking when I bet on them, was my only loser yesterday. Of course, they were. Anyhow, I'm going back to a more standard bet slip Thursday. Over the past couple of days, I've mixed in player props and a team total. However, I have three sides in my …
NBA Thursday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Chicago Bulls (-6) at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
Memphis has the most pathetic current roster in the NBA in recent years, which is saying a lot. Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. is their only starter that could be available Thursday and he is even "questionable". Otherwise, Memphis is trotting out a G-League team. Over the last two weeks, the Grizzlies have the worst offensive rating in the NBA with a bullet.
Furthermore, the Bulls beat the brakes off the Grizzlies 125-96 Jan. 20. Chicago out-scored Memphis in all four quarters and won three of the "four factors". That first Bulls-Grizzlies meeting was in Chicago but Memphis is better on the road and this is a "good spot" for the Bulls.
(Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)
For instance, the Grizzlies are 6-9 against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs. They score 4.8 fewer points per game (PPG) at home (109.2-104.4). On the other hand, the Bulls are 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 ATS as road favorites.
Lastly, Chicago has a strength-on-weakness edge over Memphis in ball security. The Bulls are 4th in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 6th in points off of turnover per game. The Grizzlies are 26th in offensive TOV% and 25th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.
BET 1.1u on the Bulls -6 (-110) at FanDuel. The Bulls are playable up to -7.
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Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks (-118), 8 p.m. ET
I might be "stepping in it" here. Milwaukee will be without SF Khris Middleton and could be missing All-Star Damian Lillard too. Dame is "questionable" and sat out Tuesday's 114-106 loss at the Phoenix Suns. However, I'm gambling Lillard plays Thursday and Giannis Antetokounmpo picks up the slack regardless.
Adding to that, this is a "buy low" spot for the Bucks after their five-game road trip. They were 1-5 SU and ATS on that trip but are much better at home. Milwaukee is 21-5 SU at home compared to just 12-13 SU on the road. The Timberwolves are 5th in net rating and the Bucks show up against tough teams in their home gym.
(Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Milwaukee is 6-1 SU at home vs. teams in the top 10 of net rating. The Bucks have NBA bests in non-garbage time net rating (+13.5) and spread differential (+7.4) in those games.
The opposite is true for Minnesota on the road. Milwaukee is 10th in net rating. The Timberwolves are 2-6 SU on the road vs. teams in the top 10 of net rating. They have a -8.9 non-garbage time net rating (ranked 16th) and a -7.0 spread differential (ranked 28th) in those contests, per CTG.
BET 1.18u on Milwaukee's moneyline (-118) at DraftKings. Gimme the Bucks up to -2.5.
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Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns (-6), 7 p.m. ET
Phoenix closed as -5.5 home favorites Tuesday when hosting the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee All-Star PG Damian Lillard ended up sitting that game. However, the gap from the Jazz to the Bucks without Dame is larger than 1.5-2 points.
The Suns are 3-0 SU but just 1-2 ATS vs. the Jazz this season. Phoenix’s lone cover was a home game, Oct. 28, without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal while the Jazz were at full strength. Granted, that was a long time ago. But, the Suns have been one of the best teams in the NBA with Booker, Beal, and Kevin Durant all healthy.
With those three guys on the floor, Phoenix is out-scoring its opponents by 16.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, CTG. That ranks in the 99th percentile of all 5-man lineups in the NBA.
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, it’s been profitable fading the Jazz on the road after road wins. They upset the Oklahoma City Thunder 124-117 at home Tuesday as +3 underdogs. Utah is 1-5 SU and ATS with a -19.2 scoring margin on the road following a home win.
Finally, the Jazz are a completely different team on the road. At home, they are 17-7 SU with a +7.5 scoring margin. Whereas Utah is 9-19 SU with a -9.9 scoring margin on the road. Buyer beware: Booker was added to Phoenix's injury report as soon as I finished this breakdown.
BET 1.1u on Phoenix -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings. The Suns are bet-able up to -7 if Booker and Beal play.
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