NBA Saturday 'Locks' Include Coach Spo Voodoo, Chef Curry Home-Cooking
I ran my mouth about getting some units (u) back in the NBA earlier this week and paid for it Friday. Honestly, I expect and deserve that. Every time I mention a win streak it gets snapped. It's not all bad though.
My two losers Friday held a lead entering the 4th quarter and the Dallas Mavericks was a LOCK. Plus, losing Friday helps me handicap angry Saturday and I do my best betting when I'm mad. With that in mind, I'm ready to cash these ...
NBA Saturday 'Locks'
Miami Heat (+7.5) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
I had this whole spiel about Heat-Hawks going Under the then-229-point total that I had to delete. First, the Heat were going to be without combo guard Tyler Herro. Now, Miami will be without both Herro and All-Star Jimmy Butler.
After the Heat's injury news broke, Miami's spread went from +4 to +7.5 and the total lowered from 229 to 227.5. Upon further review, the HEAT +7.5 (-110) feels like the better play. Since everyone is betting Atlanta, you might be able to get a better number closer to tip-off, so wait.
However, Miami is going to replace Herro and Butler with 3-point shooters and Atlanta has bad 3-point defense. Heat SG Duncan Robinson will take Herro's spot in the starting 5 and SF Haywood Highsmith replaces Butler.
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Robinson is one of the best 3-point shooters in the NBA over recent seasons. Highsmith has the 2nd-highest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) on Miami. He is behind Heat PG Kyle Lowry whose role also increases without Herro or Butler playing.
Heat SG Duncan Robinson shoots a 3-pointer over Atlanta Hawks SG Bogdan Bogdanovic at the then-FTX Arena in Miami. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Atlanta's defense ranks 23rd in "wide-open" 3PAr. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet worth of distance from the nearest defender. This is a big reason the Hawks are 20th in defensive 3-point shooting.
Also, all the money is coming in on the Hawks and this is a spot Heat coach Erik Spoelstra coaches his guys up for. Miami advanced to the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals without Herro for most of the playoffs.
Finally, the Heat have been doing this "load/injury management" BS for years now and, still, they find ways to win games. Coach Spo is the NBA equivalent to Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. They have magic powers or something.
My prediction: Hawks 113, Heat 110
Bet slip for Heat-Hawks from PointsBet in NBA Saturday, Nov. 11th.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-4), 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off
Cleveland won the 1st Cavaliers-Warriors meeting this season, 115-104, on Sunday. Meaning, this rematch is close enough to apply the zig-zag handicapping angle. It's hard to beat the same team twice in a week.
Plus, the Warriors have one of the biggest home-court edges in basketball. Since last year, Golden State is 12-2 overall and 10-3-1 vs. the spread as home favorites of -5 or less. This is only the 3rd home game for the Warriors this season.
Golden State Warriors' Stephen Curry makes a 3-pointer shot over Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Despite having two bigs in the starting 5, Cleveland struggles to grab defensive rebounds. Golden State is 6th in offensive rebounding and leads the NBA in 2nd-chance points per game. The Cavs are 22nd in both 2nd-chance points allowed per game and defensive rebounding.
Moreover, the Cavaliers grabbed 10 more boards than the Warriors in their 1st meeting. But, Golden State averaged nearly four MORE rebounds per game at home last season. This suggests the Warriors will do a better job on the glass Saturday.
Lastly, and this is obvious, Golden State is a much better 3-point shooting team. The Warriors have a +2.5 differential in 3-pointers made per game and the Cavs are -0.9 in made 3s per game. Since role players shoot better at home, I'm expecting Steph Curry gets help Saturday.
My prediction: Warriors 116, Cavaliers 107
Bet slip for Cavaliers-Warriors from PointsBet in NBA Saturday, Nov. 11th.