NBA Friday Locks: Revenge Game For Kings, Knicks-Hawks, Cade Vs. LaMelo
Good news: I haven't had a losing night betting the NBA through the first few days of the regular season. Bad news: My record is only 4-3 and my bankroll is only +0.53 units (u).
Honestly, my record is what it should be. As in, I haven't gotten lucky or unlucky. My three losers were bad spots that I overthought and my four winners were relatively easy. Regardless, it's a day that ends in "y" so you know I've got some ...
NBA Friday Best Bets
Detroit Pistons (+4) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET tip-off
If you've read my NBA betting content over the last year or so you'll know I'm the president of the “Pistons PG Cade Cunningham Fan Club”. This kid is going to be the truth and he's my pick to win 2023 NBA Most Improved Player.
These teams split their four meetings last season but Hornets All-Star PG LaMelo Ball played in three of those games and Cade missed all four.
Despite Ball's All-Star appearance and the 2020-21 NBA Rookie of the Year being in his trophy case, Cunningham is the best player on the floor.
Detroit lost its season-opener at the Miami Heat 103-102. But, the Pistons did cover the massive +9.5 spread. Cunningham scored 30 points and threw 9 assists in the loss.
Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham drives to the basket vs. Heat big Bam Adebayo at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Charlotte on the other hand upset the Atlanta Hawks 116-110 at home Wednesday. The Hornets were +4 vs. the Hawks and that was a Wrong Team Favored spot that we cashed on.
Because I had action on Atlanta, I watched the full Hawks-Hornets game. In my opinion, I got lucky to win that bet. Atlanta made just 20% of its wide-open 3-point attempts. The opposite is true for Detroit. The Heat made 50% of their wide-open 3-point attempts vs. the Pistons Wednesday.
Finally, this is just a bad spot for the Hornets. Since December 2022, Charlotte is 3-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) as home favorites. LaMelo missed a lot of last season but he played in all seven of these games.
My prediction: Pistons 115, Hornets 109
LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast: NBA October 27th Gambling Rundown ft. David Troy
New York Knicks (+1) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
I'm going from backing one of my favorite NBA players to fading one of the most least favorite players: Hawks PG Trae Young. He just plays basketball the wrong way. Trae refuses to move without the ball and plays zero defense.
Young will be matched up with Knicks PG Jalen Brunson who is the far better player. Brunson is a better floor general and is more efficient. Last season, Brunson's effective field goal rate was 6.2% higher (54.7-48.5%).
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson dribbles against Hawks SG Dejounte Murray at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. (Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, New York All-Star Julius Randle has torched Atlanta since joining the Knicks. Randle averages 27.6 points and 11.5 rebounds in his 13 regular-season games vs. the Hawks since 2019.
Plus, the 3-point shot is the end all, be all in NBA basketball nowadays. After their 1st game vs. the Boston Celtics, New York has the 6th-highest wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr). Atlanta is tied for the 21st-highest volume of wide-open 3PAr.
Lastly, the Knicks own the Hawks in Atlanta recently. Since 2020, New York is 4-1 SU and ATS with a +10.3 spread differential at the Hawks during the regular season.
My prediction: Knicks 119, Hawks 111
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings -2.5 (-110), 10 p.m. ET tip-off
This handicap is part Revenge Game, part fading an injured team with new pieces. The Warriors eliminated the Kings in the 1st-round of the 2023 Western Conference playoffs. Even worse, it was Game 7 in Sacramento. The bottom line is this game means more to the Kings.
Golden State is expected to be without defensive anchor Draymond Green Friday. Last season, Draymond led the Warriors in on/off net rating at +14.0 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Also, Chris Paul was Golden State's big offseason acquisition. The Warriors have only played one game — a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns on opening night — but it's going to take time for CP3 to find his role.
New Golden State Warriors PG Chris Paul is introduced prior to their game vs. the Phoenix Suns at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
There's a lot of movement in Golden State's offense and Paul is an old-school PG that likes to operate half-court offense. This doesn't fit with how the Warriors want to play. Basically, I don't expect Golden State to have its rotations figured out until Christmas.
The Kings on the other hand are running it back with mostly the same squad from last season. They led the NBA in offensive rating in 2022-23. Sacramento crushed the Utah Jazz 130-114 in Salt Lake City Wednesday and I'm high on the Kings this season.
Speaking of last season, the Warriors were an NBA-worst 13-34 ATS on the road, which includes the playoffs. Moreover, the Kings were top-five in both offensive and defensive wide-open 3PAr last season.