Records Be Damned, New Orleans Pelicans Can Upset Houston Rockets On Thursday

Only fellow NBA betting sickos like myself would consider wagering on the Houston Rockets (37-25) at New Orleans Pelicans (17-45) game Thursday at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans have one of the worst fanbases in the Association and the Rockets have a bunch of nobodies on their roster. That said, there is money to be made on this game, so here we go. 

First, I never agreed with Houston being power-rated as a top-five NBA team when it had the second-best record in the Western Conference earlier this season. Entering Thursday, the Rockets are the 5-seed out West and have lost three straight games to the Sacramento Kings, Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. 

The Golden State Warriors are 3.0 games back in the standings and run down Houston for the sixth- and final non-play-in seed for the playoffs. Simply put, the Rockets aren't a good enough offensive team to be a viable title contender. They are 27th in effective field goal shooting, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting, and 23rd in assist-to-turnover rate.  

New Orleans returns home after a four-game road trip. The Pelicans were 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread on that trip vs. the Phoenix Suns (twice), Utah Jazz, and LA Lakers. Despite having nothing to play for, NOLA isn't "tanking". Zion Williamson is playing every game as long as it's not the second of a back-to-back. 

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans Odds 

These are the ‘consensus odds’ across the market, per Pregame.com. 

• Moneyline: Houston (-178) | NEW ORLEANS (+158)
• Spread: Rockets -4.5 (-115) | PELICANS -4.5 (-105)
• Total — 230 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)

This is the third Rockets-Pelicans meeting this season. Houston won and covered the first two: 133-113 on Dec. 16 and 128-11 a week later. Yet, I'm not putting any stock in those games since Williamson didn't play in either and the Rockets were at full strength. Zion is expected to play Thursday and Houston PG Fred VanVleet has been ruled out. 

Furthermore, styles make fights and this is a bad matchup for the Rockets. Since both are bad 3-point shooting teams, they do most of their offensive damage in the paint. However, the Pelicans have a beefier frontcourt featuring Williamson, who can dominate Houston's small interior. 

Rockets starting C Alperen Şengün is a good offensive big but isn't a rim-protector. Alongside Şengün in the frontcourt is 6-foot-6, 225-pound forward Dillon Brooks, and 6-foot-7, 209-pound forward Amen Thompson. These guys aren't big enough to stop Zion or good enough shooters to make him pay on the end of the floor. 

While it's not a sexy addition, the Pelicans got C Kelly Olynyk at the NBA trade deadline, who is giving them good minutes. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Olynyk leads New Orleans with a +19.4 on/off net rating in his six games with the team. He is NOLA's starting power forward, putting Zion at small forward, which gives the Pelicans a size edge vs. most squads.  

New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson shoots a baby hook vs. the Houston Rockets at Smoothie King Center. (Photo Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)

Lastly, Olynyk and New Orleans rookie C Yves Missi do the dirty work, so Zion can focus on getting buckets. Olynyk is hitting 43.1% of his 3-balls this season and can pull his defender out of the paint, giving Williamson more space to operate. Missi's only responsibility is to stop Şengün, rim-protect and hit the boards.  

Prediction: New Orleans 118, Houston 112

• I already locked in a bet on the Pelicans +5 (-112) at FanDuel and sprinkled on their +156 moneyline at DraftKings early Thursday morning. For what it's worth, I'd be willing to play NOLA down to +3.5 and a +130 moneyline.

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