Two NBA 'Locks' For Knicks At Bucks, Clippers At Warriors

Is it cool to talk about the NBA again? I mean, I guess it was never "cool" to talk about the NBA, especially during the regular season, but you get my point. There's quite a stink on the Association after the FBI rolled on it last week for players and coaches allegedly helping rig games and player props for the mafia and organized criminals. 

However, as stupid as this may sound, I'll keep betting on the NBA. Maybe I'll unknowingly be on the right side of the Mafia's betting action and catch a winner here or there. If anyone in La Cosa Nostra ever has tips, please email me at Geoff.Clark@OutKick.com or DM me on X at @Geoffery_Clark. Until then, I'll just do my own homework. That said, here are my looks for Tuesday. 

NBA Betting Card: October 28

• OVER 229.5 (-105), up to 230.5, in the New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.05 units (u).
• Golden State Warriors moneyline (+110), up to -130 if Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler play, vs. Los Angeles Clippers via BetMGM, risking 1u.

OVER 229.5 in Knicks at Bucks, 8 p.m. ET 

Take it from me, "closing line value" (CLV) in the NBA is a sham. I’ve generated a positive CLV on 900+ NBA bets across the last two seasons, but I have a negative return on investment. Well, Knicks-Bucks opened with a 232 total, and I’m not sure what the market sees in the Under. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson driving to the basket on Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo at Madison Square Garden. (Photo credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)

NYK has the highest 3-point attempt rate in the NBA and allows the highest rate of 3-point shots on defense, whereas Milwaukee led the NBA in 3-point percentage last season. Finally, Jalen Brunson and Giannis Antetokounmpo get to the foul line as much as anyone, and high free-throw rates are the second-best thing for an Over bet behind lights-out shooting from 3-point range.

Clippers at Warriors (+110), 11 p.m. ET 

I'm going to seriously regret this, but I'll gamble that either Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler plays Tuesday on the second of a back-to-back (B2B) or Golden State wins regardless. I was going to write something like, "This is a ‘lean’ and I'll lock this bet in via X once their final starting 5s for Clippers-Warriors are announced". Yet, I'll make the plus-money wager now and hope for good injury news. 

They've only played four games, and this changes if Curry sits, but the Dubs are leading the NBA in 3-pointers made per game (17.5). While the Clippers have played just three games, they are 28th in 3-point attempts allowed per game (44.0). This could be a "sticky stat" for LAC because they don't have hustle players to close out aggressively on 3-pointers. 

Golden State Warriors' Stephen Curry is pumped  after making a 3-pointer vs. the Los Angeles Clippers at Chase Center. (Photo credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images)

Also, this will be a game between two jump-shooting teams, and I'll take Golden State in a shoot-out vs. almost any NBA team (again, ignore this if Curry sits). The Warriors are at home, so there is a better chance of their role players hitting 3s. Plus, most of Kawhi Leonard's and Clippers SG Bogdan Bogdanovic's attempts are from mid-range, basketball's least efficient shot. 

Finally, the market has bet LAC through zero and up to slight road favorites after the Warriors opened as -118 consensus favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. The same thing I wrote above about Knicks-Bucks applies here. Since the sportsbooks knew the Dubs were playing the second of a B2B before posting this line, I'm not convinced sharp money is betting the Clippers. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.