Two NBA 'Locks' For The First Day Back Post-All-Star Break

The Association returns from the All-Star break, and I’ve identified two specific spots where the market is currently misvaluing the board. Thursday’s slate features a shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers squad and a revamped Chicago Bulls rotation that looks much sharper on paper than their reputation suggests.

While the public might be chasing the favorites, the "battle of possessions" and superior shot quality metrics point toward some high-value opportunities. I’m following the sharp line movement in Philly and taking a flyer on a home dog in the Windy City. Here are my two best bets to get the NBA bankroll back on track.

Atlanta Hawks (-102) at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET

Atlanta should win the "battle of possessions." Philly is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the Association, and the Hawks have a better turnover rate on both sides of the floor. Atlanta's biggest issue is interior defense, but Sixers big Joel Embiid isn't playing Thursday, so maybe the Hawks don't get bullied as much in the paint. 

They also have a top-three perimeter defender in the NBA, guard Dyson Daniels, to try to corral 76ers All-Star combo guard Tyrese Maxey. Additionally, Atlanta All-Star wing Jalen Johnson poses a challenge that Philadelphia may struggle to overcome. Low-key, Johnson leads the Hawks in points (23.3), rebounds (10.6), and assists (8.2) per game. 

Finally, I'm going to follow the line movement headed towards Atlanta. Philly opened as a -4.5 favorite, and this game is down to nearly a "pick ‘em" as of Thursday afternoon. This has gotten me in trouble in the past, but I'm trusting the NBA market to be sharp. Hopefully, I'm not too late to the party, though. 

Prediction: Hawks 116, Sixers 112

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Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls (+6.5), 8 p.m. ET

First off, the Bulls could totally be tanking, and I might be a dipsh*t for betting on them. I'm a dude who doesn't like talking about his feelings, but I have a feeling Chicago keeps this game close tonight, and the people betting Toronto are more of a sucker than me. 

Bulls head coach Billy Donovan is pretty good, and I like Chicago's roster on paper. Bulls PG Josh Giddey is returning to the starting 5, and he's a baller. Chicago just traded for combo guard Anfernee Simons, who should be more scoring guard than point guard, but with Giddey running things, Simons will get buckets. 

Furthermore, Chicago has one of the best shot qualities in basketball because most of its shots are either dunks, layups, or 3-pointers. The Raptors, on the other hand, are 24th in 3-point-attempt volume, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Chicago Bulls PG Josh Giddey getting a layup against the Toronto Raptors at the United Center. (Photo credit: David Banks-Imagn Images)

Also, people might think the Bulls downgraded at center by sending Nikola Vučević to the Boston Celtics at the NBA trade deadline. But I like Chicago's new starting center, Jalen Smith. He leads the Bulls with a +14.3 on/off net rating, per CTG. Smith is younger, more athletic, and a better rebounder, rim protector, and outside shooter. 

Meanwhile, I'm just not a believer in the Raptors. They are 32-23 and 10th in net rating, but Toronto PG Immanuel Quickley, forward R.J. Barrett, and C Jakob Poetl should be backups, not starters. Maybe I'm wrong, the Raptors are this good, and their players, who I don't like, are improving. 

However, I could be wrong about the Raptors, and the Bulls could still cover the spread Thursday. Plus, I'm going to be a little frisky and sprinkle a quarter-unit on Chicago's +200 moneyline since it's the NBA's first day back after the All-Star break. I've sucked so far this season, but it's time to get my money back. 

Prediction: Bulls 122, Raptors 117

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