NBA Best-Bet Christmas Leftovers For Tuesday
After a month or so of grinding in the NBA, I feel like I'm finally hitting my stride. Christmas was a profitable day for me betting the Association. I made money in four of the five NBA Christmas 2023 games and am going for a "heat check" Tuesday.
NBA Tuesday 'Locks'
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET
There’s a handicapping angle, mostly used for betting the NFL, called the “5-point flip rule”. The T-Wolves are +2 in OKC. That includes a 2.5-point boost to the Thunder for home-court advantage.
With the “5-point flip” rule, Minnesota would have coin-flip odds at home vs. the Thunder, which is a good price. Meaning, the T-Wolves +2.5/+3 at the Thunder is too.
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Only the possible absence of Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns explains this spread. KAT is “questionable” for Tuesday but the T-Wolves can overcome his absence.
Minnesota backup center Naz Reid is another 3-point shooting big who can space the floor. Plus, T-Wolves big Rudy Gobert locking down the paint helps their guards close out on 3-pointers. They lead the NBA in defensive rating and OKC is 6th.
Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander cradles the ball while Timberwolves wing Anthony Edwards defends him during an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Target Center in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
The Thunder are 5-5 straight up (SU) vs. top-10 defenses. OKC has a -1.6 non-garbage time net rating and -0.5 spread differential in those games, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). In comparison, the T-Wolves are 5-1 SU with a +7.1 adjusted net rating and +4.4 spread differential vs. top-10 defenses.
Also, the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 106-103, covering as -2.5 favorites in their only meeting this season last month. Minnesota outperformed Oklahoma City in three of the “four factors” without starting SF Jaden McDaniels who is an underrated 3-and-D guy.
The T-Wolves are 9-1 SU and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 meetings with the Thunder. This includes a 3-game win and cover streak for them. Lastly, Minnesota is 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 4-1 SU and ATS on the road vs. winning teams.
My prediction: Timberwolves 118, Thunder 115
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls (-105), 8 p.m. ET
Atlanta is 2-5 SU and ATS with a -8.6 scoring margin in Chicago since 2019. Chicago had a 3-game winning streak snapped in its previous outing. The Cleveland Cavaliers clobbered the Bulls, who were -6.5 favorites, 109-95 Saturday.
Otherwise, Chicago has been playing well. The Bulls are 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games. The Hawks on the other hand are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS over that span. Bulls SG Zach LaVine has been out with an injury since November 30th.
That is “addition by subtraction” because they are 8-4 SU without LaVine. The ball is moving better in Chicago’s offense because LaVine is a ball-stopping, 1-on-1 player. LaVine has a -9.7 on/off net rating, according to CTG.
Bulls SF DeMar DeRozan dunks the ball on Atlanta Hawks big Onyeka Okongwu at United Center in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Not only am I buying the Bulls sans LaVine but I’m also selling this bad Atlanta defense. The Hawks are 27th in defensive rating and have the worst defensive effective field goal shooting rate in the NBA. After a stinker Saturday, the Bulls are going to have a bounce-back game vs. Atlanta because everyone scores on the Hawks.
Lastly, both of these teams are playing on two days of rest and Chicago performs better in those spots. Since 2022, the Hawks are 9-16 ATS on more than one day of rest and the Bulls are 6-1 ATS with a +7.9 spread differential.
My prediction: Bulls 120, Hawks 113
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5), 8 p.m. ET
These teams split their 1st two meetings this season. New Orleans beat Memphis 111-104 at home. Then the Grizzlies upset the Pelicans 115-113 on the road in Ja Morant’s season debut December 19th. Memphis rallied back from a 24-point deficit and Ja hit a buzzer-beating floater to win.
But, the Grizzlies being down 24 in the 1st place is part of why I’m betting the Pelicans Tuesday. New Orleans led that game for nearly 38 minutes before Memphis stole it. The Pelicans have to be motivated to avenge that loss, especially since it was so recently.
It’s tough beating the same team twice in a short period. Teams usually make adjustments in between meetings. The last six Grizzlies-Pelicans games are tied 3-3 SU and ATS since 2022. I’m hoping New Orleans shoots more 3-pointers Tuesday.
Memphis Grizzlies All-Star Ja Morant shoots the game-winning layup vs. the Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports)
The Pelicans only made 11 threes against the Grizzlies last week but shot 44.0% from behind the arc. They need to increase their 3-point attempts. Memphis’s perimeter defense should collapse if New Orleans feeds bigs Zion Williamson and Jonas Valančiūnas in the paint.
NOLA has several good 3-point shooters including SG C.J. McCollum and SF Trey Murphy III. Even if the Pelicans don't go “bombs away” from deep, they can win by margin at the charity stripe. New Orleans is +3.0 in free-throw attempts per game vs. their opponents and Memphis is -3.9.