Nationals Have Starting Pitching Edge Over Twins

Nationals vs. Twins, 8:10 ET

It was a decent day on the diamond yesterday and salvaged a bit of the past few days. I went just 1-0-1 for the day, but the issue I have is that I was very close to being 1-1 again. My shift to focusing on the first five innings paid off because the Guardians pushed for the play I had on them, and then went on to lose the game. It is not a complaint because I don't have any issue with a push, I'll always take that over a loss. Today, we take on the game between the Nationals and the Twins.

The Nationals are struggling this season and this was a year that they expected a turnaround. For them to be in fifth place in the division is a bit of a concern, but rebuilds take a lot of time. I am not sure anyone had realistic expectations that the Nationals would make it to the playoffs this season. However, a realistic thought could've been a .500 team. They are 20 games under right now, both 10 games under at home and on the road. Their general manager and team manager are both dismissed, and there are rumors of them blowing up the team once again. If they do choose to trade away someone, their starter today, MacKenzie Gore, is the most ideal choice as he would net the biggest return and generate the most interest from playoff teams and those that think they are a year away. Gore is 4-9 for the season with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up eight earned runs over 2.1 innings. Prior to the All-Star Break, he had seven quality starts in nine outings. Gore only has 12 at-bats against him from Twins hitters, but he allowed three hits in those at-bats. 

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - JULY 12: Byron Buxton #25 of the Minnesota Twins advances to third base on his triple against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second inning at Target Field on July 12, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

The Twins are not struggling in the same way that the Nationals are, but they are still struggling. They are four games under .500, and at a bit of a crossroads at the moment. The team is still somewhat in the position to make a playoff push, but the possibilities are somewhat slim. They didn't make the playoffs last year, and this year seems to be a bit small. If they choose to get rid of some folks, they have a number of options - Joe Ryan would bring back a load of talent, Byron Buxton could be a difference maker, and some relievers could be targeted. I kind of doubt today's Zebby Matthews will get much interest, but it is possible. Matthews is 1-2 for the season with a 6.26 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 23 innings. He has only made five starts this season, and allowed at least four earned runs in three starts. Four of his starts are on the road, and his one home start was good, going four innings against the Royals, allowing two earned, and striking out nine. 

Two franchises that are struggling to succeed square off today, but someone has to win. I think this is a game that the books have a bit off in terms of the line. I like the Nationals to win the full game, but the true edge that they have is in the first five innings when we can depend on the starters a bit more. I'm going to back the Nationals through five innings as Gore is the better starter. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024