Nationals And Rangers Pitching Could Put On A Show Today

Nationals vs. Rangers, 2:35 ET

Mismatches in baseball are fairly easy to spot. Not only will the book list moneylines drastically different, but you can usually just look at the pitching matchup and know one of the guys has the edge over the other. I’m sure most casual baseball fans can at least look at the teams (on paper) and pick who is the better team. That’s the situation today with the Nationals taking on the Rangers. Does that mean the chalk will cash? Let’s take a look. 

If we take a look at the records of the two teams, they aren’t that far apart. That’s part of the magic of a baseball season. The Nationals are in this year at around .500 and they might be able to maintain that the entire season. That would probably exceed expectations. They’ve been a fairly average hitting team with a .233 average, but they’ve only scored 118 runs on the season. That’s in the bottom half of the league. Their pitching hasn’t been great either with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. They also are allowing opponents to hit .277 against them. This is alarmingly high for a team that is able to hold a .500 record. Today they send out Mitchell Parker to the mound. The young lefty is off to a nice start for the club. He has only pitched three games, but he has gone 16 innings and allowed just three earned runs. His WHIP is also 0.94. The Nationals have won all three of his starts and he has faced a couple of decent opponents – the Dodgers and the Astros (though the Astros are struggling this season).

May 1, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams (5) fields a ground ball during the eighth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers came into this season with a target on their backs, I suppose. They won the World Series last season, and, of course, fans and analysts expected them to perform again this season and win again this season – maybe not the championship, but at least be a contender. The season is early, but they are hovering around the .500 mark as well. This puts the two teams squaring off today right around the same mark. It would be progress for the Nationals, but regression for the Rangers. There isn’t anything that I can really pinpoint to why they are losing. They are hitting .250 for the season and have over 30 homers. Their slugging percentage and on-base percentage both look good. They get the opportunity to send out their Ace today, as Nathan Eovaldi takes the hill for Texas. Eolvadi has been good at home with a 2.04 ERA and a 3.00 ERA overall. He’s only allowed 12 earned runs over 36 innings this season, with four of them coming at home in 17.2 innings. Only one National hitter has seen him more than three times, he has held them to a total of five hits in 21 at-bats. 

This is a game that should actually be closer than you’d think. It isn’t a great idea to ever take an under with the Rangers as one of the offenses. They can mash the ball and could destroy all the good work that Parker has done. However, I do think this game goes under the total. We saw the teams square off last night now they are back on the field less than 24 hours later. I get it, baseball isn’t the most strenuous of sports, but I still think fatigue plays into this. Back the under. 

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