MLB Wednesday Bets Include Two Massive Home Favorites
There is a chasm between the "haves" and "have nots" in MLB. Some teams are gearing up for October baseball and others are making offseason plans. Because of that, I gravitate toward huge favorites at the end of the season. That said, I'm laying the lumber with a couple of teams on ...
MLB's Wednesday Card
Colorado Rockies (48-77) at Tampa Bay Rays (76-51)
Rockies-Rays betting odds in MLB Wednesday, August 23rd from DraftKings.
The Rays have a 3-phase edge over the Rockies in starting and relief pitching and hitting. They are 2.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. The Rockies are pretty much eliminated from postseason play.
Tampa added starting RHP Aaron Civale (6-3, 2.44 ERA) to its rotation at the trade deadline. Civale was a starter I loved backing when he pitched for the Cleveland Guardians. He has allowed only 5 ERs in 3 starts for the Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays RHP Aaron Civale delivers in the 1st inning vs. the Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)
In August, Tampa's lineup is 3rd in both WAR and wRC+ and 4th in wOBA, according to FanGraphs. Colorado's lineup on the other hand ranks 23rd or worse in WAR, wRC+, and wOBA this month.
The Rays are 10-3 straight up (SU) and on the Run Line (RL) as home favorites vs. left-handed starters. Lastly, the Rockies' bullpen is 26th in FIP ("fielding independent pitching") and 28th in K-BB%.
BET: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-130) at DraftKings (down to -140)
New York Mets (59-68) at Atlanta Braves (81-44)
Mets-Braves betting odds in MLB Wednesday, August 23rd from DraftKings.
Truist Park is a house of horrors for the Mets. Since the beginning of last season, the Braves are 11-4 SU and 10-5 RL at home against the Mets. Atlanta has an MLB-best 23-11 RL vs. NL East foes in 2023.
NYM starting LHP Jose Quintana (1-4, 3.03 ERA) has lost three straight games vs. the Braves. His expected slash line and K-rate vs. active Braves batters are worse than Atlanta's starting RHP Charlie Morton against current Mets hitters, per Statcast.
Furthermore, the Braves ranks 3rd in both FIP and WAR, according to FanGraphs. Whereas NYM's bullpen is 28th in FIP and 29th in WAR.
Braves 1B Matt Olson at the plate vs. the New York Mets at Citi Field. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Also, the Braves lead the MLB in several advanced hitting metrics vs. left-handed pitching such as wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs.
Finally, there has been sharp line movement toward Atlanta in the RL market. The Braves opened -1.5 (+105) on the consensus market, per Pregame.com. Currently, Atlanta's RL is as high as -103 at some sportsbooks.